One of the biggest challenges when analysing a horse race is deciding how much importance to place on what happened last time.
A horse that won its previous race immediately attracts attention. A horse that finished sixth or seventh is much easier to overlook.
But the finishing position doesn’t always tell us which horse produced the better performance.
This is where speed ratings can provide a completely different perspective on a race.
The basic idea behind speed ratings is relatively simple. Instead of judging a horse primarily by where it finished, we use the time of the race and other relevant factors to produce a numerical rating representing the level of performance.
That allows performances achieved at different courses, over different distances and under different conditions to be compared using a common rating.
And sometimes those numbers reveal something that isn’t obvious from the form figures.
Why Finishing Positions Can Be Misleading
Imagine two horses.
Horse A finished second last time.
Horse B finished sixth.
Most punters looking quickly through the racecard will naturally be more attracted to Horse A. A recent second suggests the horse is in form and perhaps ready to win.
But suppose Horse A’s second came in a slowly run race where it recorded a relatively modest speed rating.
Horse B, meanwhile, finished sixth in a much faster and stronger race and recorded an excellent speed figure despite being beaten.
Which horse produced the better performance?
Quite possibly Horse B.
This is one of the most useful aspects of speed ratings. They encourage you to look beyond the finishing position and consider the actual level of performance.
The betting market will always notice a horse with form figures such as 1-2-1.
It may pay considerably less attention to one showing 6-5-7.
If those apparently disappointing runs contain strong speed ratings, however, there could be more ability there than the bare form suggests.
What Does a Speed Rating Actually Tell You?
A speed rating attempts to convert a horse’s performance into a simple number.
The higher the figure, the better the performance.
This makes comparing horses considerably easier.
For example, a rating of 77 represents broadly the same level of performance regardless of whether it was achieved at Windsor, York or elsewhere.
Likewise, a horse recording a strong figure over seven furlongs can be compared with another horse whose best performance came over a mile.
This is particularly useful in British racing because courses vary enormously.
We have straight tracks, turning tracks, stiff finishes, downhill sections and different racing surfaces, while ground conditions can range from firm through to heavy.
Simply comparing race times would therefore be almost meaningless.
A useful speed rating needs to take account of the circumstances surrounding the performance so that the final figure can be compared with ratings achieved elsewhere.
Once this has been done, you have a very simple way of comparing the demonstrated ability of the runners in today’s race.
Don’t Automatically Back the Top-Rated Horse
This is important.
Speed ratings are a tool for finding contenders, not an instruction to blindly back whichever horse has the highest number.
Suppose today’s runners have Master ratings of:
Horse A – 82
Horse B – 79
Horse C – 78
Horse D – 73
Horse E – 69
Horse F – 67
Horse A clearly deserves attention.
But the next question should be:
How did it achieve that 82?
Perhaps the rating came ten months ago over six furlongs on soft ground.
Today the horse is running over five furlongs on good to firm ground.
Meanwhile, Horse B’s rating of 79 might have been achieved three weeks ago over today’s course and distance under almost identical conditions.
Suddenly the gap between them doesn’t look quite as straightforward.
The rating tells you what a horse has demonstrated it can do.
Your job is to decide how likely it is to reproduce that performance today.
Look at the Master Rating
On the Inform Racing racecards, one of the quickest places to start is the Master rating.
This represents the best speed rating the horse has achieved during the relevant period and gives you an immediate indication of the level of performance it has demonstrated.
Sorting a race by Master rating can quickly highlight the horses with the strongest historical figures.
But don’t stop there.
Ask where and when those figures were achieved.
Was it today’s distance?
Was it at today’s course?
Were the ground conditions similar?
Was the performance recent?
Is the horse still capable of running to that level?
This is where speed ratings become much more powerful than simply looking for the biggest number.
Don’t Ignore the Last-Time-Out Rating
The last-time-out, or LTO, rating can be particularly interesting because it gives you an indication of what the horse has done recently.
A high Master rating tells you what the horse can do.
A strong recent LTO rating provides evidence that it may still be capable of doing it.
Imagine a horse with a Master rating of 86 but recent ratings considerably below that level. It may still be capable of returning to its best, but you need to investigate why its performances have declined.
Another horse might have a Master rating of 82 and have produced an 81 last time out.
That horse appears to be operating close to its best right now.
Neither situation automatically produces a bet, but the figures give you somewhere useful to begin your analysis.
Look for Strong Ratings Hidden Behind Poor Form Figures
This is probably one of my favourite ways of using speed ratings.
Look for horses that ran well according to the clock but whose finishing position makes the performance look ordinary.
A horse might finish fifth, sixth or even further down the field and still record one of the strongest speed ratings in the race.
Perhaps it competed in a particularly fast contest.
Maybe it was beaten only a couple of lengths in a tightly packed finish.
Whatever the reason, most casual punters will see the finishing position before they see the underlying performance.
That can sometimes mean the horse attracts less attention when it runs again.
Compare that with a horse arriving after an easy-looking victory in a slowly run race. The winner will naturally attract attention because there is a ‘1’ beside its name, but the speed rating may suggest that the actual performance wasn’t particularly strong.
This is exactly the type of information that can help you see beyond the obvious form.
Use Class Pars to Put the Rating Into Context
A rating becomes even more useful when you know approximately what level of performance is normally required to win today’s type of race.
This is where Class Pars come in.
On the Inform Racing cards you may see something such as:
Class Par: Par 77 H 84
The Par figure represents the average winning speed rating for races of that type, age group and class.
The H figure represents the highest rating previously achieved in comparable races.
So if today’s Class Par is 77, you immediately have a useful benchmark.
A horse with a Master rating of 82 has already demonstrated that it can perform above the typical level required.
A fully exposed handicapper whose best figure is only 69 faces a very different challenge.
It doesn’t mean the 82-rated horse will automatically win or that the 69-rated horse cannot improve.
But you now know something extremely useful:
what level of performance today’s race is likely to require.
That can quickly help you separate realistic contenders from horses that appear to have plenty to find.
Extra caution should naturally be taken with lightly raced and improving horses, particularly two-year-olds and early-season three-year-olds, because they may simply not have had the opportunity to demonstrate their full ability yet.
Class Pars Can Also Help Identify False Favourites
Class Pars become particularly interesting when assessing short-priced horses.
Imagine the favourite has finished second on its previous two starts and is trading at 7/4.
On form figures alone it looks obvious.
But today’s Class Par is 76 and the horse’s best recent speed rating is only 70.
It may still win, of course.
However, the ratings are telling you that despite those attractive finishing positions, the horse has yet to demonstrate the level of performance normally required to win a race like today’s.
Now suppose another runner has less attractive recent form but has previously recorded figures of 78, 79 and 77 under similar conditions.
Which horse deserves closer examination?
This is exactly where speed ratings can encourage you to question what appears obvious from the betting market and the bare form.
Look for Ratings Achieved Under Today’s Conditions
Once you have identified the strongest-rated horses, start looking at the circumstances surrounding their best performances.
Course and distance can be important, but don’t become obsessed with exact matches.
You might discover that a horse consistently records its best ratings over seven furlongs but drops several points whenever racing over a mile.
Another may repeatedly produce its best figures on soft ground.
Perhaps a horse’s three best career ratings have all come at today’s course.
Those patterns can be extremely informative.
The objective is to establish whether today’s conditions give the horse a realistic chance of reproducing one of its better ratings.
If they do, you have another reason to take the horse seriously.
Consistency Matters Too
One exceptional rating shouldn’t necessarily be treated in the same way as a series of strong performances.
Suppose one horse has recent ratings of:
81 – 65 – 66 – 64
Another has:
79 – 78 – 80 – 77
The first horse has produced the highest individual figure.
But the second horse has repeatedly demonstrated a similar level of ability.
Which would you trust more?
There isn’t a universal answer because you need to understand why the first horse produced the 81 and whether today’s circumstances could allow it to do so again.
But this illustrates why speed ratings should be read, rather than simply sorted from highest to lowest.
Patterns matter.
The Horse the Market Has Missed
So what are we ultimately looking for?
Not necessarily the top-rated horse.
We’re looking for a horse whose speed ratings tell us something that isn’t immediately obvious elsewhere.
Perhaps it finished seventh last time but produced an excellent figure.
Perhaps its recent form looks disappointing because it has been racing under unsuitable conditions, yet its previous ratings over today’s course and distance are among the best in the field.
Maybe the favourite has attractive finishing positions but consistently records ratings below today’s Class Par.
Or perhaps an older handicapper has gradually fallen down the weights and now returns to the conditions under which it previously produced its best speed figures.
These are the situations worth investigating.
The more obvious a horse’s chance is, the more likely everyone else has already noticed it.
Speed ratings can sometimes reveal the less obvious contender.
Speed Ratings Should Be the Beginning of the Investigation
One of the biggest mistakes you can make with any rating system is expecting it to do all of the thinking for you.
If a horse has an outstanding figure, investigate it.
When was it achieved?
How long ago?
Over what distance?
Under what conditions?
What handicap mark was the horse running from?
How has it performed since?
Does today’s likely pace suit it?
Has something changed that might allow it to reproduce that figure?
The rating has done an important job by drawing your attention to the horse.
You can then use the rest of the information available to decide whether the opportunity is genuine.
A Simple Way to Start Using Speed Ratings
You don’t need to make this complicated.
When analysing a race, start by identifying the top three or four horses on the Master ratings.
Compare them with today’s Class Par.
Look at their recent ratings, particularly LTO.
Then investigate where their strongest figures were achieved and whether today’s circumstances are similar.
Finally, look for the interesting one.
The horse with a strong rating that perhaps isn’t obvious from its recent finishing positions.
The horse returning to favourable conditions.
The runner capable of reaching today’s Class Par that other punters may dismiss because it finished sixth last time.
That’s where speed ratings can become particularly useful.
Final Thoughts
Speed ratings aren’t a crystal ball and they won’t find every winner.
What they can do is provide a different way of looking at a horse’s ability.
Traditional form naturally draws our attention towards winners, placed horses, fashionable trainers and impressive recent performances. Speed ratings allow us to look underneath those obvious clues and ask a different question:
How good was the performance really?
Sometimes the horse that finished second produced an ordinary performance.
Sometimes the horse that finished sixth ran considerably better than most people realise.
And sometimes that difference isn’t fully reflected in the betting market when they race again.
That’s why speed ratings have remained at the heart of Inform Racing since we first went online in 2003.
They’re not designed to tell you blindly what to back. They’re designed to help you identify the runners worth investigating and give you information that many other punters may simply overlook.
Because finding winners isn’t always about spotting the obvious horse.
Sometimes it’s about spotting the good performance that everybody else missed.