As you know I am always looking for new system ideas when using the speed ratings that I can share with subscribers and another simple, yet so far effective idea came to me during the racing last Saturday afternoon, which has proved a profitable place betting system using the speed ratings.
I started playing around with the rules of System 4, one of a number of systems that subscribers receive and one of the most popular going on the feedback and I began looking to find a high strike rate of horses that would place only.
As with a lot of my ideas, the rules are not mechanical in any way and they also evolve during use, based on the results that I get, but overall and from a small sample over a few days of betting the results have been positive.
Place Betting – Starting Rules
Simple enough to follow and from the filters that I have added, I am looking at Handicap races with 12 or less runners and from these I look at the Lto (Last Time Out Column), giving the latest rating for each runner.
Taking all of the those highlighted as top 3 horses in the Lto column, I am looking for the horse who finished in the worst position last time that is also below 3.00 in the Betfair place market close to the off.
If the horse with the worst finishing position is 3.0 or bigger then look for the next worst placed horse from those highlighted in the Lto column down to those who finished second. I am not a fan of backing horses who won last time out so I stop at any that finished second – you may decide to go down to last time out winners if you wish.
I have added two screenshots below of my Betfair fun account that I use to test ideas, showing all of the bets that I placed. As you will see I only had a few bets on Saturday and Sunday afternoon but a good number of bets on Monday (yesterday).
I started betting using £20 stakes, increasing this to £30 from the last race at Salisbury into the evening racing at Chelmsford and you can see that the profit made is fairly healthy.
(Please click any images to enlarge them.)
I did initially think that it would be wise to ignore horses that had had a long lay off but there have been some successful bets on horses that have been rested for a while so I am not too concerned about this at present.
Notes on the above results.
The successful bet in the 6.00 at Chepstow was a National Hunt Flat Race not a Hanidicap and whilst the horse Poetic Rhythm actually won at 8/1, I think keeping to handicaps would be more sensible as there is more reliable form to go by.
(Incidentally, I didn’t back qualifier Pearl Acclaim in the 7.55 Chelmsford on Monday evening and this came second at a similar place price to Poetic Rhtyhm so the profit and loss shown would be about the same.)
I had a cheeky £2 win and place bet on a big outsider in the 4.20 Goodwood on Saturday which lost and this is shown on the results above.
I did back Richie McCaw in an 18 runner handicap on Saturday and despite this success, now believe that restricting it to races of just 12 or less will ensure a better strike rate and with the horse placing at 2.06 would mean a smaller profit made on that shown of about £20.
I could have a few more place betting bets but the odds on the selections place prices were too short for me.
Possible Filter
From the results so far, two horses that lost had SP’s of 10/1 and 9/1 and were also both 5th favourite in the betting. My initial thought was for horses to be in the first three of the betting but backed these as the place prices were under 3.0.
The majority of horses have been at 6/1 or less but three other successful horses had SP’s of 7/1, 7/1 and 8/1. Two of these were 4th favourite in the betting, one at 7/1 was 5th, so it is really down to you how you play this regarding the odds and how fancied a horse actually is.
I think if you were being strict you could say it must be one of the first three in the betting and with a maximum of 12 runners you would expect the place price to be under 3.0.
Lots of us like to relax the rules a little however and have a few more bets, all I can say is that from this small sample, ignoring the position of the horse in the betting would not have made much difference.
Sometimes you get a gut feeling about a horse and backing it when you think you shouldn’t will result in a loss the majority of the time!
My Final Rules to Follow – Place Betting Only
Handicap races only.
12 runners maximum. A race can have more runners declared but at the off it must only have 12 at the most.
Races where Betfair are paying 3 places for a place, so no races where only 7 or less were declared.
Take the horse with the worst finishing position last time out from all those highlighted as top rated in the Lto column.
Selections must be less than 3.0 in the Betfair place market close to the off .
If it is over 3.0 then ignore this horse and look at the horse with the next worst finishing position from all those highlighted as top rated in the Lto column.
A minimum price? Personally I think you should try and get at least 1.7 otherwise you will be risking too much for too little reward. From all my results there has only been one I backed at under 1.7, it was 1.63 and it came 5th.
An example from yesterday
This a handicap race for 10 runners and looking at the Lto column you can see that there are four horses highlighted (in purple and in Bold type) as top or joint top rated. Cacia (84), Unsuspected Girl (79), East Coast Lady (79) and All The Rage (75).
You do not look at the highest rated first, you look at all of the horses and hover over the Lto rating to get the finishing position for that run. From these four horses, Cacia finished 1st, Unsuspected Girl and East Coast Lady both finished 3rd and All The Rage finished 2nd.
With two horses showing the same worst position of 3rd, you look at the betting and see that East Coast Lady was over 3.0 for a place, in fact it went off at 4.0 whilst Unsuspected Girl went of at 2.9, the price I got just before the off.
Below is how it looks when you hover over each rating, giving you the finishing position plus much more detail about any particular rating and run. Here it shows the details for Unsuspected Girl last time out at Kempton where the rating was 79 and finishing position was 3rd.
Place Betting, Back to Win or Each Way?
Not counting the horse in the NHFlat race or the one in the 18 runner handicap race, there were 21 selections in all, with 16 of them winning or placed.
This gives an excellent 76% strike rate for coming 1st, 2nd or 3rd and an average place price of 2.3 and as you can see from my Betfair account I made over £300 profit to mainly £20, then £30 stakes, so a good return and success – thus far.
From the 21 selections there were actually 6 winners giving a 29% strike rate and a profit to BSP before commission of 23.14 pts, over £460 to £20 stakes.
You may wish to back these selections to win or each way but I was looking for a place betting idea and with the high strike rate so far would be happy enough sticking to this plan for now.
Results Update 19/04/2017
From the 1st March to today’s date, there has been a profit made of +25.91 points and if you just place the win part of the bet, this increases to +40.86 points.
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As always Ian, thank you for your time and endeavours to provide the public with a profitable method of selecting horses.
When looking at the LTO finish position, if the horses ran in different class races lto would you ignore that race? For example, if horse A came 5th in a class 6 race and horse B came 7th in a class 5 race would you ignore this race? If not, which horse would you pick as having the worst finishing position?
Pick the one that came 7th as long as it is under 3.0 in the place market at the off.
Looks to have the makings of a great little system Ian. I presume we’re looking at races where BF pay out on the three places……so 8 to 12 runners? Then if any non-runners, with BF still paying the third place, the selection is still a bet as long as above 1.70bsp?
Cheers, Marcus W 🙂
Hi Marcus, yes should have said make sure it is paying 3 places. Will amend this on the rules above thanks.
ian does the strike rate improve using the extra place i got 14 races put down the price of the place 4. over the price range so will keep eye on the rest se how they fair off
I am sticking to just 3 places for this but you can see how you get on in large field handicaps paying 4 places. Or do you mean choosing 4 places when it should be 3? If so I think the prices will be a little short.
Thanks Ian, much appreciated.
cheers
george
First race Huntingdon, sarpech won only 6 runners so no bet, could of got 1.8 for three places, worth thinking about.
I was on it for the 3 places, i dont see the problem with going the extra place, either 3 or 4 if the price is above the min 1.7.
Yes I suppose you are right if you can get the 1.7 or whatever your minimum is. I will be sticking to my rules for now but all systems can be modified to suit a users betting style.
I just noticed that too Edward. I guess it’s just a case of where do you draw the line or monitor the results for a while. It could be argued that you could expect a horse to have as much or more chance of getting in the first two of a six horse race as a horse to finish in the first three in a twelve horse race? Something to watch and food for thought. Time will tell. All the best. Marcus 🙂
thanks Ian but I dud mean the extra place ill keep eye on this and also looking at 6runber races as well might even roll the bet over two or three times ill keep you informed how it works out but think it looks good I would still of done first race with 6 and 1.8 good price
Sounds very interesting. Please keep us updated on this method over the next few days….
What a shame my subscription has ran out.. I will resubscribe 🙂
Neil
Caponova, 5.15 Leicester, 2nd at 3.6 just now. It was a qualifier apart from the price. Why the max price criteria of 3 and under Ian?
I am trying to find horses that are half fancied that ran well last time out. By keeping to under 3.0 you should be backing something that is at least 3rd or 4th favourite at worst and by that reckoning it should be fancied a little at least. If you want to back at bigger then 3.0 I would stick to the original system 4 and use the 80/20 staking plan.
Also, nice 2nd with Oak Bluffs in the last at 2.92 for me and hopefully others.
what site are you getting this information from
It is from Inform Racing Speed Ratings.
http://www.informracing.com
Hi Ian, after reading your article had 9 selections this afternoon with six of those placing. Thank you.
Well done Craig, nice to hear of your success.
Hi Ian. After re reading the article today, I realised that I’ had made a mistake. I’d followed the selection process as stated but had used a minimum price of 3.0, rather than as the maximum price. Interestingly over the last two days I have made a 15 point profit. Will test this for a few more days and see if it continues to do well.
My thinking was they should be below 3.0 to show they are at least a little fancied but I suppose if you get enough in at over 3.o or 4.0 you will cover a few losses. Out of interest what was the biggest price you have had and what was the strike rate?
Thanks Craig.
Success rate was 53%, with highest price placed at 4.5
Thanks Craig
Top stuff Ian
Was anyone betting only on the 4 places yesterday and if so how did you get on?
I had one that came 4th and two the previous day, I just wonder how it works out for selecting the horses and getting the shorter prices.
I am thinking that a normal selection that is over 3.0 for 3 places would mean you look for another horse under 3.0. However if that horse at 3.0 was maybe 2.2 for 4 places then you would be backing it.
Hope this makes sense, anyone have any answers to this?
Thanks.
Yes Ian, i did the 4 places for a slight loss, 4 winners and 6 losers, i was 3 from 3 on the 3 places i did.
So overall a a profit.
Im inclined to stick to the top few in the betting as long as the min 1.7 is available, and leave the ones that are not in the top 5 perhaps, all good stuff though and a great starting point into stimulating ideas ect
Hi Ian seems to be a solid set of rules based on good logic. As you are looking at the LTO rating I would consider a couple of points first of all what OR it is carrying today as you would want the selection to be running off a similar mark and also what class is it in. Looking at two of the selections mentioned Unsuspected Girl being the first she was up 2lb from the LTO run which seems fair enough but had in her favour that she went from a Class 4 down to a Class 5. You also mentioned Oak Bluffs he ran off the same mark but also went from a class 4 to a class 5 so both were dropped in class. Not sure how this would work as a filter but may be worth considering as both of those selections were dropping in class but were on similar marks backed with a decent LTO rating. On that basis they looked banker place material (easy to say after the race but looking at the data it makes sense)
Deviated slightly from the system and had Bazzatt at 2.0 in the 20:55 Kempton classified stakes race with 13 runners. Picked this one because of the hiighlighted LTOs was the only one over same distance as current race (apart from the non-runner). Should we consider distance when looking at LTO? (Bazzatt’s stats over 1m were very good at 1/3/6 and he actually won the race)
Hi Michael,I don’t think the Bazzatt race wasn’t a handicap either,we;; done all the same 🙂 and cheers again to Ian for posting the system up,looking forward to giving it a blast.
typo,sorry,’don’t think the Bazzat race WAS a handicap either’….
Good to see everyone is sticking to the rules then !
Had 3 bets today following the rules you posted and all 3 placed! Thank you very much Ian!
Rock out Ray
I did 8 bets the first day I tried this and I included races with less than 8 runners but still betting 3 places on Betfair. All 8 placed and for £10 stakes I ended up with a £77 profit for the day.
Last night I started off with 3 out of 3 placed and was beginning to think I’d found the holy grail of betting with 11 winning bets in a row!
Wasn’t to be though and I ended up with 4 out of 8 on the night but still moved my profit up to £92 for the two days.
If the betting goes as well today I’ll move up to £20 stakes
Nice one Chris, shame about the losers 🙁
Are you using a minimum and maximum place price?
Yes, I’m using min 1.7 and max 3.0 as per the article. Another winning day yesterday with 4 winning bets out of 6 so I’m upping the stakes today. One of the losers actually went off over my max – 3.16 but I’d put money on when it was 2.86. Possibly a case of me being too eager and betting too early.
Interesting system Ian, thanks for sharing. I have assumed that this is for flat/aw only and not jumps is that correct?
I am using it on both Richard.
Thank you. Looks like I will need to renew my subs.
i am loving this and will stick to this it’s quick to go through the races and selection thats what i wantd as i found i wasnt really using this much but now i use every day will look at diff ideas with results over time but all in all very good,i also only stick to races where lto are highlighted ,3 horses onlt if four or 5 lto are highlighted i leave this race alone my thoughts is it might be bit more competitive if that makes sense ,well done ian also could be a laying in the place market if over 3.00 nut will keep eye on this
Hi Stan, probably a sensible idea to only back in races with 3 highlighted, as you say should make it a little less competitive. Good luck today.
I will just post my results for the jumps so far and it reads 4 wins and 13 losses. For me this is enough to at least stop betting in jump races for the present time and monitor these results.
Has anyone else drawn any conclusions from their results so far?
yea with the jumps do the top rated ,if it came 1st lto do 2nd rated,if top rated n/r do 2nd if 2nd n/r do 3rd rated,if over 3.00 in the place do 4 places yest there was 4 over 3.00 and 3getting placed (2of them 4.00 getting 4th spot) hope this makes sense lol,i looked at handicap and non handicap both done well so yest 16 selection 11 placed if using 4th place
looking back on results just keep eye on this idea ill papper trade for now a lot was pulled up or fell might need bit of fittness over the jumps also might just do them if they came 4th last ime out will keep informed
well did send link for you ian but dont seem to be on here unless you deleted it
Sorry Stan I took it down yes.
Exceptional day today with 7 placed out of 8 races.
W2.48, W2.00, W2.26, W2.87, W2.06, W2.48, L, W2.16.
The first 6 selections all actually won their races.
Hi Jamie, was that on the flat and over jumps?
Jamie, which set of rules did you apply ?
Hi Robbie
I only did races where there were 8-12 runners declared to run, ok if non-runners brought this below 8.
I didn’t bother complicating it with using races where there were only two places available or trying to use the extra place that Betfair offers.
As per the rules, I was taking the horse with the worst finishing position LTO (top 3 LTO column) and if this didn’t fall into the price range 1.8-3.0 then taking the one with the next worse all the way down to 2nd LTO.
I didn’t bother backing anything that won its last race (in agreement with Ian) and this was demonstrated in one race where the only qualifiers on price were two horses that both won LTO and both failed to place.
Two of the winning races were over jumps and amazingly the first six selections all actually finished first, although I was only on the place.
I agree this was an exceptional day and won’t always be this good, and personally I would only use the races with 8-12 declared, not being too greedy as there is too much action for me otherwise utilising Betfair’s extra place.
By the way, if two horses had the same placing LTO and both qualified on price then I was taking the one with the best Master rating irrespective of price. If this was the same, which didn’t occur yesterday, I suppose you would take the one with the shorter price.
Hope this clarifies sufficiently.
Thanks Jamie, an exhaustive explanation. Much appreciated.
You did well seeing that you also did jumps (Ian mentioned to leave out jumps)..!!
Did anyone try multiples with place betting on betfair?It seems it would do ok…
I have trialled this Fri/Sat and it does have some legs. Not used the LTO (not resubbed yet but will).
Using the rules laid the strike rate has been pretty good, and with the LTO in play the system makes sense.
13.5 Hurdle Bishops Court 2.44 1.44 3 places 3rd
14 Sprint Twighlight Son 2.44 -1 3 places np
15.1 Gallio Gold 2.18 -1 3 places 4th
15.3 Udontdodou 2.1 -1 3 places 4th
16.05 Tamayuz Magic 2.76 1.76 3 places 2nd
16.2 Dualays Anthem 1.61 0.61 3 places 3rd
16.4 Mystical Mirage 3.25 2.25 3 places 2nd
17.15 Apprentice Miss Tree 1.79 0.7 3 places 1st
2.05 Courtesy Call 2.28 1.28
14.35 Flying Pursuit 2.12 -1 4 places 6th
2.4 Changing The Guard 2.2 -1 3 places 4th
15.1 Rousayan 3.1 2.1 3 places 2nd
15.25 Sporty Yankee 2.68 1.68 3 places 2nd
16 My Dad Syd 2.06 -1 3 places 4th
16.1 Jack Snipe 1.91 0.91 3 places 2nd
16.35 Enjoy Life 2.12 1.12 3 places 1st
17.5 Fastnet Blast 2.62 -1 3 places 4th
19.05 Tonkiness 2.74 -1 3 places np
19.35 To Choose 2.62 1.62 3 places 1st
Average Price Points Average Winner Win Percent
2.369473684 7.47 1.885 57.89%
The LTO stats should give it a nice edge.
Thanks for sharing Ian.
Hi Richard,
How are you making the selections without using the LTOs from the Inform site?
My thoughts as well, you need the LTO ratings otherwise your just looking at the card as a whole, or looking at the top 3 in the betting i suppose.
Using the rules without the ratings, just to try and prove a point really. As mentioned the ratings will/should give an edge.
Out of the last 7 races we have only had 1 placed horse Saturday/Sunday is this correct or I am doing something wrong
yes richard says he trialed it then he said he hasn’t resubbed . gone dead again as well i see . ian puts some good things up but never carries on with results for long , how are we supposed to see it it works consistently . one of the reasons why i never subcribed again .
With respect future, I wonder why it has to be me that keeps a record of every system? The rules are posted, the ratings are published so everyone can find and record the bets on here and to be honest I have hardly seen a horse race this week being busy with other things so there is no way I can keep a profit/loss for this. And with most ideas that I post, the rules can be altered by the user to get more or less bets, play at different price ranges etc., so users can get different results than others do as well.
@future been a busy week doing other things. I posted my findings to say, that the system made some sense and looked positive based on my not having the LTO figures, but these should give them an edge. Today, as been a negative day.
15.35 Fly Boy 1.78 -1 4 places
15.45 Johnny Barnes 1.8 -1 5 places
15.55 Cheltenham!! Heron Heights 1.78 0.78 3 places 1st
16.1 Short Work 3.15 -1 3 places last
16.2 Cape Cova 1.58 0.58 4 places 1st
16.45 The Ducking Stool 3.5 -1 3 places last
16.55 CK Chesterton 2.18 -1 3 places last
17.05 Finger on the switch 2.38 -1 3 places fell
17.2 Syncopate 1.96 0.96 3 places 1st
18.2 Holy Roma 2.04 -1 3 places np
Will look again over the weekend.
sorry all x
i am having some good luck with this strategy, made over £440 in 4 days with an 87% strike rate. just using £20 stakes. been betting with odds as low as 1.66 and as high as 3.50.
will post my results if anyone is interested
Would be interested to see results. Thanks John
yes i like to see your resalts
wednesday nov 16
bangor on dee 12.50 – minellaforfitness @2.44 lose
exeter 13.30 – umberto d’olivate @2.02 win
ayr 14.15 – dane hills well @3.30 win
ayr 14.50 – lochnell @2.30 win
kempton 16.25 – captain scooby @1.70 win
kempton 16.55 – just the lord @2.74 win
£121.20 profit
thursday 10th nov
southwell 12.25 – east coast lady @3.40 lose
towcester 12.45 – fled or pled @1.83 win
southwell 12.55 – unnoticed @3.15 win
ludlow 14.05 – chakisto @3.35 lose
ludlow 15.05 – still believing @2.12 win
chelmsford 16.25 – fire brigade @1.86 win
chelmsford 17.55 – heavenly cry @1.95 win
£78.20 profit
friday 11th nov
cheltenham 12.55 – realt mor @2.26 win
lingfield 13.55 – haaf a sixpence @2.46 win
lingfield 14.30 – red tea @3.20 win
newcastle 14.50 – zaru @1.87 lose
wolverhampton 19.50 – harpers ruby @3.50 win
£128.40 profit
was busy at the weekend and was wifes birthday yesterday so had day off
tuesday 15th
southwell 12.45 – brave helios @1.85 win
lingfield 13.25 – rigolleto @1.66 win
lingfield 13.55- alkhor @3.10 win
lingfield 14.25 – dandy flame @1.95 win
lingfield 14.55 – beardwood @2.02 win
£111.60 profit
where there are multiple horses with the same last time out finishing position, i sort them by their lto rating, for example at lingfield 14.55 3 horses finished 1st last time out, beardwood was top of the list
Thanks John for posting these results, i had totally forgotten about this system, something im guilty of im afraid of looking at something and jumping onto something else without giving something a real chance, thanks again for taking the trouble to post.
Great results John. Thanks for taking the time to post 🙂
HI John , Thanks for posting your recent results.
I have a query :
In the Southwell 12:45 (Tuesday) why is Helios the selections and not Foot The Bill?
Both are in the top three LTO but Foot The Bill had higher finish position LTO ..(btw it didnt place)
john why did you pick 1.55 alkhor it was 3.4 in the place market so would of been out side the price range or are you not going by price range in the rules on selection
Stan, if you scroll up the post you will see John is going as high as 3.50
Hi Everyone I am new to the speed ratings and have had some success using my own racing knowledge combined with the ratings so not a system as such.
I loved the idea of 80/20 place/win ratio and utilised this to make a £200 profit in October for £5 stakes.(been too busy recently to follow up and found the jumps difficult at moment)
Has anyone tried using the 80/20 method on this system? I hate to miss out on the win element.
John, ive never used the 80/20 staking, but you may well be onto something there. A fair amount of these placers probably go onto win. Food for thought certainly.
Had a look at this system briefly a couple of weeks ago and it has a lot of potential.
John – just have a few questions on yesterdays selections;
1. Brave Helios – I presume this was chosen over High Council because of higher LTO rating – much the same as Beardwood?
2. 1.55 Lingfield selection of Alkhor was at BSP of 3.4, but Shypen (same LTO of 7th) was BSP of 2.16. Any particular reason why Alkhor was your choice.
3. Did you have a selection in the 3.55? My selection was Mamoo (BSP 2.52) and finished 4th.
Thanks
Looking at the first Qualifying race today 1.00 Warwick, i presume Tiomon’s Tara would be first choice?
yea cheers george i know that but was just saying as ian does 3.00 max so john not going with max place price ,thats all i was trying to find out
I had these as my selections today; as per the main rules indicated by Ian – (all based on 3 places, min 1.7 and max 3.00 odds). If anyone has different, please post selections. Thanks
1.00 Timons Tara @2.92 lose
1.55 Star Trouper @2.58 win
2.40 Satanic Beat NR
3.00 Gold Bonne Raine @2.22 lose
3.35 Wilton Milan @2.42 lose
7.10 Wrangler to run
I must admit, i had a wretched run when i trialled this a couple of weeks ago. More like 20% success rate! Will give it another go and see if i fair any better.