On my last post, 11th July ‘The Inform Racing Race Cards’, I discussed three methods that had recently provided good winning bets using the ratings and one of these was following top distance winners.
On the Inform Racing race cards, there is a Distance column (Dis) and this gives the best speed rating for each horse at today’s distance, over the past twelve months.
A short while after I wrote that post, I started to look a little deeper into these results and decided upon a new idea that would incorporate these top distance winners along with other form criteria, to see if I could bag more selective winners, rather than just backing these horses blindly.
Since starting this idea on July 24th, there have been 33 bets, with 7 winners, giving a 21% strike rate and a profit to SP of 29 pts, all in just 9 days.
Musharrif Won 12/1
Arcane Dancer Won 5/1
Ambitious Icarus Won 9/2
Polar Forest Won 3/1
Save The Bees Won 7/1
Gaelic Wizard Won 15/2
Ellal Won 16/1
My criteria for selections so far is:
- The horse must be top or joint top rated in the Distance column and its Master rating must be equal to or better than that Distance rating.
- The horse must be running in an all age handicap, so only races for 3YO+, 4YO+ etc. and no Novice Handicaps over the jumps.
- The horse must now have a handicap mark of equal to or lower than its last handicap win.
- The horse must have won within the last year, or 365 days.
- The Trainer must have had a winner in the past 50 days. (This is still a little open to question as I think only one horse had a Trainer with a much longer number of days to a winner and this did lose. I think the highest I have had is about 40 days since a winner so some clarification required here.)
I think you will agree that all of these points combine to give a solid and sensible reason as to why a horse that qualifies may have a good chance of winning.
The horse has the best speed rating at today’s distance and has won within the past twelve months, now racing equal to or lower than its last handicap win and the trainer is not out of form.
Finding The Selections
All of this is very easy to do when using the Inform Racing race cards, as shown with 16/1 winner Ellal yesterday at Redcar. In this race there were two qualifiers in the one race, so both were backed. The other horse Tellovoi, actually refused to race but luckily ther other selection Ellal won.
Here is the race card, an all age handicap (4YO+), sorted by the Distance column where you can see Ellal and Tellovoi both have the top rating of 80.
When you then hover your mouse over the first pop up box for the horse, you get all the other information required to decide whether this is a selection or not.
As you can where it says OR Today, the horses Official Rating, or handicap mark today is 61 and its last winning mark (Last Won) was 72. As long as the mark today for Ellal was 72 or less we are okay.
The (-2) after the 61 just means it has been dropped 2 lbs since its last run which you can see was 63 at the end of OR last 5 where it finished 7th (7). Note: If it is blank or it shows a 0 after Last Won, then this cannot be a selection.
Next you can see that the horse last won, Since a win, was 354 days ago, so under the twelve months stipulation and at the top in blue you can see it is only 4 days since trainer Ruth Carr had a winner, so the yard is comfortably in form.
And that is it!
Open the race cards by race time order, scroll down to the all age handicaps for the day, check the top distance figures and hover over the pop up box.
All in all it should take no more than ten minutes to go through a busy day of racing.
Some Points Of Note
It should be mentioned that this is only a very small test over just 9 days, but as said earlier you have the basis for a sensible selection method and as its been proven you will come up with some nice priced winners.
There has also only been one horse from over the jumps at Perth and this lost but more recording is required here to see what happens when there are other jumps results in the bag.
The Bets and Results
Below are two images of the 33 bets I have placed from my Coral account which I am using exclusively for this test.
As you will see I started betting £1 each way, or £2 win if the early price was shortish, however I decided to ignore the each way bet as of yesterday and started betting the full £2 on the win. Good timing as there were three winners yesterday!
There have only been two placed horses, including Etienne Gerad yesterday, 2nd at 12/1, along with Ower Fly at Newmarket, so it seems the horses either win or lose and it is better to go full on for the win, but that is up to you.
You will also see that the bet on Fast Play shows on both images, just to prove all bets are shown and no losers between Fast Play and Footlight were cut out by me.
Click the images to enlarge and open in a new window.
You can of course add your own filters to the criteria I am using but I like the simplicity of the selection method and the chance of getting one or two big wins now and then.
I have found three selections today and have taken early prices of 6/1, 9/1 and 10/1. Good luck if you are going to give this a go!
very good ian , but as i have said before mores the pity that this can’t be backed up by previous results before you started the trial betting .
if there was a way of doing that going back through cards results you would then know if it was sound .
No use whatsoever unless you have historic data than can prove that this is a profitable system long term, another system confined to the bin i am afraid
If you published a proven profitable system for everyone to use, you would have a situation where everyone would be fighting to get on at the prices (Just like people fighting to get on Hugh Taylor’s tips) and the market would adjust very quickly nullifying the profitable system. The reason why you haven’t been able to make the ratings profitable is because you don’t make a tissue price, the art of placing a price next to each horse and only backing when the odds are in excess of your own prices. Anything else, is just winner finding and doomed to fail in the long run.
From the 3 yesterday Foxtrot Knight was 4th at 7/1, Hepplewhite was 2nd at 8/1 and Lady Joanna Vassey was 2nd at 5/1. So close but no cigar.
A bit of care and delving is required. GROWL initially came out as a qualifier in the Stewards Cup as the ‘hover’ showed it last won off a mark of 114 and is on 109 today. However, that win came in a Listed race last year and the highest mark it has won off in a Handicap is 93.
Yes Richard, it is worth a check using the form guide link. There was a horse Domtaline yesterday that looked a qualifier but its last shown win was a Chase and ran over hurdles yesterday.
I am going to get the Last win mark shown on the pop up to be changed in the near future so it shows the last win for hcps, non hcps, turf, aw, chase and jumps. This should make it easier for whatever idea you are using, to look at today’s mark and compare it with the correct last winning mark for the race type.
Thanks Ian.
Yes, I had Domtaline as a bet to start with. Good idea if you can amend the pop up as you suggest.
very good observation there richard , thanks about the last win mark and very important may i add .
thanks ian for seeing it this way and making the effort to have it changed , can you please let us know when this has been done .
i have been a subscriber in the past and never found any angles and was frustrated as they couldn’t be back tracked also but always looking to see if there are any positives going on about the site that may see me return in the future .
I actually emailed Richard with the following. Keen to know anyones thoughts on this.
Hi Richard, regards your post and Growl running today. I am thinking now that whilst the last win was a non handicap, the official rating movement up and down necause of good or bad form is the same. It’s mark is dropping because of poor form. I think this is the same whether the win was a handicap or not. What do you think? With Domtaline it was chase to hurdles and different but with Growl it is the same race type. I am going to back Growl for this.
I am hoping these changes will be soon. There will be new cards that have been created with the new database coming in the next few weeks but I don’t want to pin point a date as these things have a habit of taking longer than expected. The cards will be more or less the same with additional racing silks colours, forecast prices and ability to remove runners from the cards and then going forward once the basics are up, new additions more often with one of the first being the difference on the Last won ratings as mentioned. I am sure you will get an email when things are updated if you are not a member now.
Thanks Steve.
Yesterday I had Black Dave on my lnitial list, but took him out once I had noted his poor record on Soft going (via Patternform). He was a later non runner due to the going according to the BHA site.
It is worth digging into each qualifier although what usually happens is the one you discard then goes in at a big price. I seem to be backing a lot of seconds which seems the bane of most good ideas relating to this sport!
Yes I looked at Black Dave then saw it was a non runner which meant Rattle On became the qualifier and duly got beaten into 2nd by half a length at 16/1. Pretty sure the difference between winning and losing was the jockey being an 8 pound claimer against a more experienced apprentice. Same as with Seamster on Friday at Bath finishing second when coming to win the race but the stronger jockey won the battle to the line.
If I was to add another filter it may be to look at the jockey but then as you say, one will come in that you have ignored for this reason.
Can’t see any bets today although Energia Fox comes very close.
ian , thanks have read what you had to say regarding the new race cards , wouldn’t it be a good idea when you send the e-mail out to then ask the members / non members what they would like to see / added to them .
i don’t see racing silks any advantage whatsoever tbh , forecast prices i suppose would let you know if there was any value to be seen from top rated horses across the board from the different ratings , having the ability to take out non- runners will be good though , something that has been needed all along .
i personally would still like to see some form of system builder to see over time if any were profitable to filters used and recorded by p/l to bsp or s/p , i for one wouldn’t mind paying more on the subscription if this was to become .
in the main i think you have got most of the bases covered but it’s always good to ask peoples thoughts on what might help more , sometimes very good ideas that never before have been thought of to bring it to another level .
I have done at least two surveys in the past few years asking members for their ideas. Maybe you were not a member at the time I don’t know. Personally I don’t think I will ever have a system builder as I don’t think following one regimented rule will show a profit and to be fair I have a very large number of regular subscribers who come back year after year to know that the ratings and cards have some real relevance to everyone and probably in every case they use the ratings in their own personal way different to others. I use a combination of ratings, pars and form to find my bets and I hope that is what the majority do.
I also want to try and keep the cards as simple to use as possible so I don’t want to be adding so much that it confuses people. I think I have the balance just about right going by subscriber numbers and testimonials. I am always open to new ideas for the race cards at any time if you have them.
thanks for answering ian , can never remember a survey at all tbh but will take your word for it .
i will leave the system builder idea alone now as it will never happen .
Yes agree Energia Fox was close. Two more seconds that you describe above Ian. I then start to think, place only? and then they start coming fourth. Sods Law in general is not on the side of punters.
I have backed Calder Prince in the 3.40 which I know is not a strict qualifier. The last winning mark of 86 is below today’s 90, but it did win off of 94 in May last year so I have allowed some licence!
Yes and Royal Connoisseur was second last night as the third bet for me after Growl, 4th and Rattle On, 2nd. I don’t like betting each way really and place betting is just too hit and miss. I think it is easier to back a horse to win or lose than to bet it for a place and the odds are generally short.
never follow listed or group ratings into handicaps, this is an old racing rule when working out the form.
I think it is worth looking at the top 3 at least when looking at the distance ratings as there can be reasons to pass on the top or even 2nd rated I looked at Calder Prince which Richard mentioned but he was still 4lb higher than last mark so was a pass for me in fact Breakable was the one I looked at and I was close to having a bet but left the race alone to my cost. He was second top on the distance rating and only 1lb higher than his last winning mark so very little difference however last two runs were class 2 and class 1 so this was a big drop in class he was also top on the course ratings. I have said it in the past you cannot systemise the ratings but use them to back the up other factors as in this case Breakable dropping in class and almost back to the same winning mark on a course he liked
Not had much luck with this idea yet.
Today I like Lady Joanna Vassey (2.45) who nearly won for us at FLas five days ago. Has been dropped another two pounds since but what I also like is all her three wins have come within six days of a previous run. Ideally wants Soft/Heavy and rain is forecast at Catterick from midday.
Also like Deben (3.45) who runs well here. Not a strict Q as last win was 397 days ago but that win was 13 days after it’s previous run, which is exactly the same time span here.
Both were second with LJV trading at 1.03 in running. Seems to be an outstanding Place betting method. Sick of backing seconds!!!
Won’t be long before a few of the seconds start coming first and making back the losses. Had Jan Smuts as well today and that was poor but onwards and upwards tomorrow.
I have 8 today and would like to think a couple might come in.
2.50 Brighton Hallings Wish
3.10 Ponte Captain Revelation
3.20 Brighton Pendo
3.30 Bath Storm Rock
3.40 Ponte Sennockian Star
4.10 Ponte Seamster
5.10 Ponte Harwoods Volonte
8.15 Yarm Upavon
I have your top three plus Upavon Ian.
Please look at Silver Alliance in the 4.20 as the only reason it is not on your list is the last win was 370 days ago off a mark of 68. This went in my tracker as lto at Brighton it had the passage from hell and finished full of running. Well worth looking at the video and is on a mark of 55 today (7/1 is available).
I get what you say about the 4.20 and good luck but I am just trying to keep to the strict rules for my records and no form reading at all. I am just making sure that apart from the hurdle/chase rules we mentioned before, a horse running on the turf has won on the turf before and vice versa for the all weather. As well as the other main rules.
Yes fair enough, I understand you have to follow the method.
This is only a test at £2 stakes. My normal bets combine as much form reading as using the ratings as a starter point.
Ian, I have just gone thru your other qualifiers. I missed Storm Rock so have included it (thanks). S’ Star and Harwoods figures are from the AW so I will leave them and Seamster – there are so many figures on top of each other I thought I would leave it. Good luck later.
Two non runners and 3 more finishing second at 11/1, 4/1 and 3/1. Getting annoying now 🙁
Regarding the use of the distance ratings and any system the method must have a sound base and then developed. if the system has a sound base it will always produce a steady stream of winners. I have been looking at using the distance ratings in combo with all the available info on the site and believe me they produce winners at good prices on a regular basis and are more than a good starting off point to narrow the race down.
Hello Ian. What should be the highest figure in Last Winning OR.
Many thanks.
Lionel.
On the popups there are 2 trainers which one would be the important one please, the first or second one?
Many thanks.
Lionel.
Hi Lionel, the first name is the Trainer, the one below is the Jockey.