Many new subscribers ask what is the best way to use the speed ratings and I always tell them that a way of getting positive results can be by combining the speed ratings columns.
This means you are using two, or more, of the columns available on the Inform Racing race cards and taking either the top or top 3 rated and concentrating on these blindly, or using a little more form research, as I often suggest, to narrow down the selections to just one or two.
My initial thought was to combine the Master rating with another column but to get a good overview of latest form and ratings, I decided to look at horses that were top rated in both the Lto (Last time out rating) and the AVG column (the Average of the last three ratings achieved).
With a number of horses falling, pulling up etc.. over the jumps, which would distort the Avg column for this test, I decided to concentrate on just flat racing and have a full set of results for September 2017, with some excellent results.
Rules
1 Flat races only
2. No Maiden races
3. Horse must be top or joint top rated in both the Lto and Avg column.
4. If more than one selection, back both or all.
Race card with winning example.
The card below has been sorted by the Lto column showing the speed rating for the Last time out run. This brings the top or highest rating to the top and you can see that both Shazzab and Dathanna are joint top with a rating of 80.
Scan across to the Avg column which shows the average of the last three ratings and you will see that Shazzab has the highest rating here at 75, concluding that Shazzab is the selection in this race.
Click the image below to open it in a new window.
As you can see by the Position and SP on the far right, Shazzab won at 16/1 beatingt Dathanna into second place at 13/8.
It is worth noting that Shazzab ran in a Class 5 race last time and only came third, compared to Dathanna who ran in a Class 2 race and won, whilst the race above was a Class 4 as shown by the (4) in the race header.
The main reason for the massive difference in price is more than likely the fact that Shazzab was going up in class and Dathanna was going down in class, however the speed ratings show you that there was actually no difference in the actual form.
Most people would use the same form reading ‘skills’ and give Shazzab no chance but this is a great example of when the form says no yet the speed ratings are screaming out yes! And at a great value price too.
Results
Overall the results were promising and ultimately profitable but there were quite a few bets, which as I will show you could have been reduced.
The selections themselves are simple to find by opening the race cards by race time, sort the cards by the Lto column and then work through the days racing as it proceeds looking for all horses that are top or joint highest in the Lto and Avg column.
The first set of results show every bet for the whole month.
Bets: 314
Won: 90
Lost: 224
Strike rate: 29%
Winning SP total: + 265.17
Minus all losing bets (224): +41.17 points profit
A pretty good return on investment of 13% with an average of 10.5 bets a day.
This next set of results show only results for those priced at 11/4 or bigger.
Bets: 189
Won 37
Lost; 152
Strike rate: 20%
Winning SP total: +194.8
Minus all losing bets (152): +42.8 points profit
This final set of results is probably the most impressive, taking only those horses with an SP of 8/1 or bigger.
Bets: 37
Won 9
Lost 28
Strike rate: 24%
Winning SP total: +91
Minus all losing bets (28): +63 points profit
Betting these to Betfair Starting Price including less 5% commission: +112.70
Minus all losing bets (28): +84.7 points profit
A massive 228% return on investment!
Whilst I totally understand it is not always easy to bet at only 8/1 or bigger, it does show you that waiting for the better prices would have been well worthwhile, increasing profits by approximately 50% to SP and around 100% using BSP, including the 5% commission.
The lowest Betfair price for the 9 winners was 11.0 so it is possible to set up the bets in something like Bet Angel to only bet if the price just before the off is 11.0 or any price of your choice to trap these bigger prices.
All of the results can be checked if you are a subscriber by using the Historical Meetings link which shows all results as the cards were when posted including Position and SP, just like the race card above with the winning example.
To subscribe to Inform Racing and access the ratings please click here >>
Does this include all weather.
Barry
Yes.
hi Ian,
I have been with inform for quite a number of years and find it invaluable for working through form making the process an absolute doddle,congrats on the recent improvements.
best regards,
colin f.
Thanks Colin, I am hoping to add more value in the future too.
Hi Ian
I would like to take this opportunity of telling you that your rating are the best in the business.
I dont know how anybody who takes there Horse Racing seriously can bet without them.
I would recommend your service very highly to anyone who is betting
Many thanks Keith, its always good to hear positive comments from subscribers.
The thing I like about inform racing is the speed you can get through data and if you know what to look for its a doddle I would like to see F.T.O. data (trainers) added nice 20/1 the other day I like Ian’s systems and help much better site now
thanks ian for that looks a very good system with some logic to it , have you ever looked at this before at all i’m wondering on the blog on another post .
was september just a lucky month , have you checked august at all .
not being negative at all but rome wasn’t built in a month if you get what i mean .
also i do like to see a race with fully all horses with 3 races with ratings against their name then that gives out the correct average figure for all .
like you are saying there would possibly be too many bets in a day sometimes to back them all but going for a minimum bfsp price could be the way forward .
thanks again anyway .
Hi Stephen, anyone can check back on the past results and see how other months went. I’m sure you don’t want me to do all of the hard work for you! 🙂
You can also get other ideas from these angles when using the ratings, hopefully anyway.
Thanks.
yes i’m starting doing that now ian , only interested in races with fully all last 3 races in them because otherwise i feel it gives a distorted view on things for the average figure
Interesting……..does anyone have an update on how this system has done long term?
Just been given this idea the once over and it seems very good for getting horses placed which is not a bad thing for large ew multiple bets I found if there is no selection using the method if you take the highest in the Avg column with any red in the L.T.O. column you get more placed horses you don’t have to put a lot of money on I use the union jack bet ew with a 9 timer ew at 10p ew =£1.80 best return to-date was £740 and none of them won
starting from today (10th) will monitor these on the spread indice buying the qualifiers to a £1 stake , will update results frequently, could be interesting
Thanks Keith, look forward to seeing some results.
What would be super useful, is if Ian could include a column in each card table, that showed ‘Highest Ever Speed Rating’ for each horse. I manually do this in excel for every 3YO+ Handicap…but it takes me ages – well worth it though!
Hi Dominic, there are lots of ideas and suggestions for extra columns but I always want to try and keep it as simple as possible and I don’t see me adding extra columns, but you never know. Most data on the cards is for the past 12 months which is a reasonable time span for looking at form. If you want more info it is available on the form guides.
I also presume you know that the Highest Ever Speed Rating for each horse is actually shown on the pop up over the horse name.
Wahaab was beauty today10/1 highest avg red l.t.o. in Dr% 10 also 56% run style had a lot going for it have to check this in future races
Thanks, Ian. Yes, I use your pop up boxes every day to note the ‘Highest Ever Speed Rating’ for each horse.
There are two good examples today where the bottom rated horses on Master Ratings Column, actually won. Wordismybond (16:20 Brighton) and Fort Jefferson (16:50 Brighton).
When you rank both their ‘Highest Ever Speed Rating’ figures against all the runners past 12 month Master Ratings, both were in the top 2.
I understand that you must get so many requests to add to the main card tables, and I am a great believer in keeping things simple! There is no other information I would want to see in your current cards apart from ‘Highest Ever Speed Rating’.
Hopefully one day, sir! 🙂
ian , just to clarify , in 2yr old races is it just the nurserys count towards a bet or do you include novice auction races
Yes it is all apart from Maiden races, those with Maiden in the title.