I have been monitoring a new laying system using the ratings since the beginning of December and I think you will like the results.
This is a very, very simple system to use and will take no more than two to three minutes a day to find the selections.
The results are as follows and include a 5% reduction on all winnings for Betfair commission.
December 2016
40 bets
35 winning bets
87.5% strike rate
ROI 24.31%
22.85 points profit
January 2017
67 bets
59 winning bets
88.06% strike rate
ROI 16.24%
10.88 points profit
February 2017
72 bets
62 winning bets
86.11% strike rate
ROI 21.15%
15.23 points profit
March 2017 so far
19 bets
17 winning bets
89.47% strike rate
ROI 45%
8.55 points profit
Totals
198 bets
173 winning bets
87.37% strike rate
ROI 29.1%
57.51 points profit
That means over £285 using £5 stakes or a tidy £1,150 using £20 stakes, in just over 3 months.
There is a nice minimum and maximum Betfair price bracket on these of between 4.0 and 10.0, so those really fancied and those with too much risk involved are not layed.
System Rules
You need to be a subscriber of 202.164.45.101/informracing/ to be able to find the selections.
5. There can be joint top rated horses in the Lto column but there can only be one of these joint top rated horses that finished 2nd or 3rd, otherwise ignore the race.
The thinking behind this is that a horse that came close last time out (2nd or 3rd) and achieved the highest rating of all the runners today, may have exerted itself to its maximum or at least more than the other horses and will not find any extra today. Finishing 2nd or 3rd will often mean the horse will start a shortish price today. If it is under 4.0 then it may also be fancied or connections who know more than we do. Over 10 and the risk is too high as they do win at bigger prices sometimes. Between 4.0 and 10.0 seems to be the correct price bracket for laying these horses.
To join Inform Racing to be able to find the selections for this system, please use the following link:
https://informracing.com/subscribe/
Results Updates April 2017: Total +56.34points
Click the link below for a regular updated list of results in a Google Spreadsheets web page, from December 2016. You can look at the different months on the tabs at the bottom of the sheets.
Updated Results Here >>
Ian,
Very interesting idea.
A couple of questions:
1. Is it advisable to use the price range filter just before or at the off, or do you use the system at any time before the off, knowing that drifting or shortening may occur?
2. Wouldn’t the same logic apply to the Top Rate LTO that actually won its last race, if it met the BSP price filters?
Just before the off is best, or set up an automation to place the bet just after the off with Bet Angel or similar software.
Regards winners, I am thinking the seconds and thirds couldn’t win giving their best but winners found a bit more to win. They could give a bit more again. A bit dubious reason possibly but I am happy enough with results so far.
just started today …2.00 cross fire ..2.30 ..brideys lettuce ..2/2 so far .£20 bets …next 1 3.20 @ exeter would that be correct..triple chief
There is one in the 3.00 Southwell.
Crosse Fire was under 4.0 so not a bet officially.
Triple Chief wins at BSP 6.65.
Yes a bit of a hit there. I thought it was beaten coming round the last bend.
I feel sick and not for my losses. Sods law I am afraid.
cross fire i layed @ 4.4 would that be katie gayle
Yes Katie Gyle. I am only going by the BSP for Crosse Fire
lol b4 i went to work katie was 3. 8 dam it lo
3.50 Exeter, Lower Hope Dandy wins at BSP 5.3
Hello Ian,
Have you noticed any difference with the amount of days since the horse last ran? My point point being that if its say, 40 plus days since the last run then the form the theory is based on may not be relevant.
There could well be something in that Bucks, I haven’t recorded the days since last run so if anyone wanted to go back and do so it may filter out some of the losers. However just going by the finishing position has produced a good profit so far.
Yes, it’s definitely stood up pretty well. I think days since last run and, on same mark since last run or above would be interesting filters without trying to complicate.
Onward and upwards guys. Today is another day!
Hi Ian! I’ve tested & tweeked your system since the weekend & the results are certainly good! Also laying short priced favs Gustav 11/10 Exeter yesterday (not top 3 in your ratings) is an added bonus! I would maybe suggest back prior/lay in running the higher end priced qualifiers in case of any reverses!
Ian,
Just looking back at your previous blog articles, and I noticed the one right at the bottom of the blog page: Strike Rate Over 55%, Top Rated Last Time Out.
The article goes on to single out a high strike rate of winners, and profit, where the Top Rated LTO came 2nd or 3rd LTO.
Which blog article is the Real McCoy?
I think I did a short test on this with good results but then after a while found it wasn’t that successful and it turned into a lay system. I think I should delete that post. Sorry for the confusion, I didn’t mean it to be and thanks for pointing this out.
I would just say that all the results from December 16 I showed can all be checked and verified as proper bets for this lay system.
I have recorded a profit of 9.5 points to bsp minus commission since the 10/03/17. Not a bad start, but as always with laying that one black day is always close by.
hows this doing now since the e-mail came out with the results up to 7th march , there was then 8.55 pts profit for march
Typical sods law kicked in Stephen with a 22 point loss since then. I need to find a way of letting people know about good system results without the law of sod knowing. You can follow the results on the link below which will also on the blog post shortly and these are updated daily. Still up overall but the recent hit has been disappointing to say the least.
thanks ian can’t see the link you mentioned , yes very dissapointing
The link is at the bottom of the blog post.
hi ian yes got the link now thanks , seems a very easy system to use indeed and made a great start ..but as you say thinks have gone downhill now this month which is dissapointing for you and also subscribers , and you are right every time you seem to put something up that you have checked for a few months that went well as soon as it is it ,,,well ! , was the same with the dobbing tool .
was going to sign up again as well which i know is why you do these system checks to get people on board , then we are all winners .
what i am wondering of course is would another filter or two have helped to have cut down the losers found such as number of days since last run , won at the distance or course , handicap mark , won on same going or similar , won at same class or below ..there must be something that would help , what’s your feelings on this at all
Yes I am sure there are I just was looking at a quick system which started well.
great day for this system on 18/03/17
phil …how’s that can i ask , according to the spreadsheet their was one winner and one loser , thanks ?
hi Ian, from 13 selections yesterday, 1 loser, mon jenni
I do speculate on under 3.00
but without your ratings, for the ordinary punter it would be an impossible task to find lays. consistent small profits with the occasional blip = happiness cheers Ian
bets today
2.30 L, ossy Thomas
3.45 P, taurian
4.00 L, noches del reye
Hi Ian. Have you thought of having the bet cancelled if the qualified bet is the favourite in the race?
Anyhow, I think its a very good system. But it is for long term, and not the big wins now and then.
Hi Ian
What are the rules with the lay system LTO when two of the top rated have a LTO of 3 are these void and left alone I ask as one race today had 2 with lto of 3 and one of them won
regards
Cliff
Hi Cliff, the systems are really a guide to ways of using the ratings. When you get to certain points like this you have to make a decision. Probably best to back both if the prices are good enough.
Hi Ian,
I wonder if your lay system may be worth doing with a lay price to keep in running of say 6.0,hopefully most selections will touch 6 or under and the hit of an inevitable winner may not be so hard.
Hello When you say 6.0 may I ask you do you mean bsp 6-10, 4-6, or just 6 on its own?
Many thanks.
Lionel.
Morning Ian,
I’ve been paper trading your lay idea during the last week,along with a couple of tweaks,as I posted earlier,laying the higher priced horses at 6s in running to soften a hit,and also,I’ve been considering any of the top 3 LTO horses,not just the top rated one.
Since Monday,there have been 43 selections and 2 winners(losers for me),so it’s gone very well,I’ll keep jotting down selections for a while yet before I dip my to in the water for real,but thanks for highlighting the idea,and good luck to all 🙂
16 selections today,a few of which I’ve made a note of ,due to them also being highly rated on the M&A ratings so could be dangerous picks.
Hi Jonny, if you can record these bets it would be good to msee how you get on over a few weeks. I am starting to lay these using an excel bot with Gruss. I made the max to lay 15 instead of 10 and had 3 or 4 all lost yesterday. I haven’t been through them today yet but I am only going to stick to top rated Lto otherwise I think the chance of success is less. I like the idea of laying bigger prices in running at 6.0.
Hi Ian,no problem,I’m jotting them down the evening before,so I’ll post the results up each night for the next week or so,I kept an eye on a few higher priced runners that qualified on the other filters yesterday, up to 30 plus on betfair,and a few touched 6s in running,so maybe any priced selection could be considered as long as you put in a lay price you’re happy with.
Best of luck with it 🙂
I have 9 today, I actually had 5 all lost yesterday.
Out of 12 lay selections so far today,9 were successful,3 were high odds and didn’t get matched in running at 6s,4 more still to run at Kempton.
Good morning,
There were 16 selections yesterday,all of which lost,5 were high odds and didn’t get matched in running at 6s,4 were high odds but got matched in running,and 7 were outright qualifiers within the price range.
Not too bad Johnny, I make that 11 points profit before commission?
Yeah,a good day Ian,I’m still paper trading at present,and including any of the top 3 LTO rated,plus laying the higher priced ones at 6s in running,so slightly different to your original system.
I’ve jotted down 7 selections today,good luck 🙂
7 selections yesterday,6 lost and 1 won at 6s,so a small profit would’ve been made.
Evening all,4 selections today,3 lost and one won at 6s,so -3 points for the day.
Thanks Johnny, we will have losing days. Better luck tomorrow.
4 from 4 today 🙂
Good stuff Johnny. What sort of prices?
Hi Ian,4.5 and 5.2 and 2 were matched in running at 6s. Had 4 so far today,including a winner (loser for me) at 6s 🙁
Hello Ian the liability on lay betting can be very high and you can lose a lot if 2 lay bets lose.
Yes you need to be careful when laying Lionel. It can be profitable but comes with some dangers as you will lose more than one stake depending on the lay odds.