I had an email from subscriber Russell last week, a member for over three months now, telling me he has nearly doubled his Betfair account in the last six weeks using a method he found concerning the last time out ratings.
He says he hasn’t looked into filtering the races or the bets as of yet so thinks there is probably a way to improve this idea with less bets but he likes to have lots of interest and bet through the day.
It is a simple enough method which I tried out on Saturday and using minimal stakes won over £50 on the day.
Not a bad start and whilst you don’t have to be betting in every race, it is possible to find a bet in the majority, so if you are someone who likes to follow all of the racing and have lots of interest, then you will probably like this system.
How it works.
Go to the Inform Racing race card and find the highest rated horse last time out (Lto).
In the example below for the 2.50 York, you can see that Delizia has the highest Lto rating of 82.
From here you now want to see if Delizia is one of the first three in the betting, (close to the off) and if so, place an 80/20 bet on this selection.
If the horse isn’t one of the first three in the betting, go to the second best rated last time out, (Donjuan Triumphant) and if this isn’t one of the first three in the betting then go to the third best last time out, (Gracious John).
For the top three, you take all of the top three horses as sometimes there are more and if you get two qualifiers on the same last time out rating both in the first three of the betting, back the one at the shorter price.
Russell says that he uses the Betfair market for the first three, not the actual betting market as he places his bets here and says it is more accurate this way.
If you look at the Betfair results for this race, it shows the prices so you can see who was first, second and third at the time the race began.
The first three in the betting here were Donjuan Triumphant 3.61, Gracious John 4.3 and King Robert 8.4.
So going back to the ratings, Delizia wasn’t one of the first three in the betting, so you move on to Donjuan Triumphant who was so you have the 80/20 bet on this one and as you can see, the horse won.
80/20 betting.
An 80/20 bet, is where you place 80% of your stake on the place market and 20% on the win. I was using just £5 stakes when I tested this out, so I put £4 on the place and £1 on the win.
Variations would be 70/30 and 60/40 but Russell says stick to 80/20 as it is safer all round as more horses place, so more stake is used on this part of the bet.
Back to the rules.
Russell says that you should always try to use the extra place market on Betfair to get more places in the race, although this will mean taking a shorter price.
Betfair now have a market for the extra place, so an eight runner race which normally pays out on three places, has a market paying out on four. A twenty runner handicap that normally pays out on four places, has a market that pays out on five.
Russell says that for the most part, the place bet is just covering the win stake plus a little so the difference in place money for four to three places, or five to four is not worth worrying about and that he has had many horses that have finished fourth or fifth that he wouldn’t normally get paid out on, meaning he would lose the whole stake.
There are some occasions when you don’t bet and that is when the first horse in the Lto column is LESS than 1.5 in both the normal place market and the extra place market.
Normally this will be when a horse is say 6/4 in a seven runner field or something and here you don’t then go to the second best Lto, you just move on to the next race.
If the extra place market is below 1.5, then you try the normal place market and if still below 1.5 move on to the second best Lto rating and so on.
Russell suggests that to have more bets if all of the top three last time out are not in the first three of the betting, you can go back to the top rated last time out and back it as long as the place price is 5.0 or bigger.
On Saturday, Nameitwhatyoulike was such a bet that came third at 20/1 paying 5.45 in the place market for five places.
Finally, if there are 12 runners or less, Russell doubles his stake.
Summing Up
I think here you are using two factors we know do produce a lot of winners, the top three rated last time out and the first three in the betting. By betting in the place market you should therefore have lots of bets that either win or at least place.
From the 23 races I bet in during the day, there were 9 that were unplaced, 10 that were placed where you win a little bit and 4 that won, winning the win and place money.
I think this is a slow burner that will give lots of races to bet in and that will steadily increase the betting bank over time like Russell has done with his.
I would suggest starting £5 stakes on the 80/20 method which is £4 place, £1 win and doubling to £10 stakes for the 12 or less runners rule, so £8 place and £2 win.
The Rules
1. All races. (Use your own filters here if you want less bets.)
2. Take the highest top three rated Lto horse that is in the first three of the betting.
3. If this is not in the first three of the betting, work down just the top three highlighted Lto horses until one of them is. If none are go to Rule 7.
4. The selection must be 1.5 or bigger in the extra place market, if not in the normal place market and if shorter than this in both, then no bet.
5. Bet the selection using the 80/20 method.
6. One stake if 13 or more runners, double stakes if 12 or less.
7. If no top three highlighted horse is in the first three of the betting, bet the top rated last time out in the extra or normal place market if price is 5.0 or bigger and to just one stake whatever the field size.
Thanks to Russel for sharing this idea
Filters
To cut down on bets you could look at if the horse with the Lto rating is also one of the top three overall in the Master column, look at the number of days since the Lto was achieved, filter by race type, class or field size.
Depending on when you place your bet, not everyone will get the same prices but try to place the bet as near to the off as possible.
If you have any methods or systems that you use with the ratings that could help other members then please feel free to either post them in the comments below or email me with the rules and I will write a post about it.
Sounds a good method but I would recommend taking in to account race conditions, e.g if last time out was on firm ground and today it was soft that would not be a bet in my eyes, betting in this many races eventually variance will catch up and it will not be profitable, if you take race conditions in to account you will remove some of that variance, conditions are a key thing for horses running to there very best ground, trip etc
Yes that is a very good point and a method that would certainly filter out a few losing bets I would think.
Hello Andrew. Forgive a novice asking you questions. Where do you find the race conditions?
Many thanks.
Lionel.
Race conditions just means the distance, the going, the class of the race etc..
Amuse Me, 2.40 Sedgefield – LTO rating of 81 (11 above next rated) 1st in betting – Won
Wow that was a good start, think I’ll quit while ahead lol
2.0 sedge Amuse @ 6.2 win / 2.7 place
Having backed the first 2 winners of my method, I thought I would write and put it up for your consideration
It follows a similar idea as explained in Russell’s email but I take HALF the field to consider if the winner is in that group
I have put forward other ideas about splitting the runners into a manageable 50% in the past and if you split each of the 4 columns of ….Master : Lto: Av : M + A ;
you can reduce a field of, for example, 14 runners down to 3 or 4 to consider
The highlighted top-rated for each group certainly help but I often list the runners to get a clearer picture
I start my listings with the top 50% rated of LTO
then the top 50% of Master
then top 50% of Av
finally the top 50% of M+A
And yes, it does take time but I don’t want to miss a winner by being impatient and rushing to finish quickly
In the 2.30 race @ Windsor on Monday it left me with 3 qualifiers….Willsy, Dismantle & Stormflower
nothing else in the race qualified to being in the top 50% in ALL FOUR of the ratings
Now you could back all 3 horses or you could take the MASTER ratings to give you a single selection
best Master rated…..Stormflower WON 16/1
Next Race :- 2.40 Sedgfield
Here again there are 3 qualifiers…..Amuse Me, Kashstaree & Burnt Sienna
best Master rated……Amuse Me WON 9/2
not a difficult method but just time-consuming in assessing a full day’s racing
I only assess Handicaps but it will work for other races
Sunday’s results : In the Red 7/1 ; Broughton 9/2 ; Iseemist 6/1 ; Danimix 11/2 ; Ifwecan 10/1 ;
all Sunday winners from Handicaps and being all in the top 50% of each group of ratings
Hi Norman I have noticed this pattern as well I just press Master and the top 3/4 are at the top although there might be 1 or 2 to reject, for some reason on my computer it says informracing.org is not responding due to a long running script when i stop the script the whole card works ok till I try another card this idea is very good and good prices Handicaps come up with big prices
Roly
A problem I have had in the past but I ditched Internet Explorer and started using Mozilla Firefox…cleaner and faster IP and less of the advertising banners that take away some of the power.
I use 3 clicks of the mouse and the whole cards, I rank by time, sort themselves out
Hi Norman
Looks a good system but as the master is the deciding one wouldn’t it be quicker to start there, if the top master is then in the top half of the other three then no further research needed, if it is not
just keep going down the master until all four appear in top half. Seems a lot quicker this way to me. Am looking forward to this afternoons racing with yours and Russlls systems, although there seem to be a lot of odds on horses.
If I have got it wrong can you let me know
Thanks
Richard
Hi Richard
on many days the four different columns have good and bad days
On Tuesday for instance the top-two per column had 4 wins for Master ;
5 won from LTO ; 8 from Av ; 9 from M+A ;
as SOD’s Law often applies the Master has started to have less winners than the others
I list the full 50% of LTO in my usual notes then start only to list qualifiers for the other groups but, YES, list the Master first by all means it makes sense really for the idea, I just like to have all 50% LTO in front of me
I didn’t back it but Grumeti, the big race winner on Saturday, was an LTO listed qualifier but saying that there was 17 horses listed, and even doing a trends analysis using HRB it stayed within the trends parameters and could have been backed if you were feeling lucky
LTO figures are good as are all the ratings, it’s just trying to get them right and to find a decent value selection….that’s another story !!
DOUBLED my bank using this method in one week not once has my bank gone backwards ,i only back if over 7/1 today no exception 2 winners and well up
Could you please clarify which method have u used Neil?The Russel method or the Norman’s one?
Best wishes
Norman’s. Bank still growing every day
STILL WINNING 14th day in a row and up it goes again turned 100 into 203 with small ew
Neil,please tell me if i get this right:
1.must be in the top 50% of all 4 ratings(M,LTO,AVG and M+A)
2.if more than one,take the highest M rating as long as it is at least 7/1?
3.bet using 20/80 stakes?
Thanks for your time.
Best wishes,
Dan
bank still growing took a deep downward yesterday then bounced straight back up and more today with more bets to come lovely winners earlier swift cedar keep oit dark daialogue and some near misses place money only
Are u using the same rules as i stated Neil?
Hi Dan, I believe Neil is yes but think he is betting straight each way if 7/1 or bigger.
DAN must be in all 4 top 50% if over 7/1 bet them all ew not just top rated start small try it on PP OR 365 10P EW bank will stall or drop slightly during a week but it just wins all the time over period example yesterdy my bank was 424 placed about 60 quid in bets ended day at 412 so it fluctuates but in next 2 days it will go up again thats how it grows , i started with 100 im now betting 2 ew ,i have never seen a bank grow so solid as this making nice profit each week alot more than 10000 pays in interest a month in buliding society . example today 315 wetherby looking first harstside kayf blanco russian royale its a mans world would be selections but after sorting all columns its a mans world drops out leaving the other 3 at 7/1 7/1 10/1 so if any win nice return
BOOM SYSTEM produces another biggie OLD GUARD 16/1 TAKEN bank goes up again
Thanks a lot Ian and Neil for your replies.I”m very excited thinking about following this but i do have a few more questions for you Neil with the risk of becoming annoying(this happens when you’re novice in this sphere):
1.do you take into consideration non-runners before splitting the field?
2.when is a odd number of runners are u applying 50%+1 strategy?
3.how would you sort tommorrow’s 3:05 Plumpton after M rating as there are 10 declared runners and you’re looking after only 5 of them?Do you take the highest and count 5 and stop at number 1 or you go down the field and take the number 8 into consideration as well?
3.do you apply this only on H’caps?
4.if i’m doing this the night before and can take at least 7/1 should i go for it or should i wait a few hours before race starts?
Looking forward to your reply….barely wait 🙂
Best wishes,
Dan
DAN I DO NOT LOOK AT NON RUNNERS i just count down the card if their are 10 i look at top 5 master make a note then apply same on each column lto avg ma if their are odd number runners i add 1 extra im only doing handicaps and put bets on asap as example today 2 winners halved b4 the off so would of missed them , you need to apply a bit of your own instinct to it but quite straightforward , plenty of frustrating days where 2nd and 3rd give small return but if winning would of boosted bank ,its a slow but consistent burner . just noticed my earlier post where my bank says 412 424 thats a mis key im currently on 244 from 100 been a slow few days just waiting for a few biggies to land in one session . i first tested this from normans rules for a week using 10p ew to get used to it todays winners were sir valentino cavaleri with a few near misses ie shootingsta 2nd 14/1 nietche mr muddle warrant officer moidoire all placing at 8/1 and 10/1
Thanks Neil but Sir Valentino and Warrant Officer weren’t “official” selections :):P as they weren’t in top half in all 4 columns…anyway…i got the point…will start small from tommorrow…fingers crossed:D
I will be writing a post on this idea in the next day or two so hopefully that will make things clearer and all posts for that can be posted there.
Thanks Neil and Norman for the idea.
What do you do if you have 4 selections, do you back all of them ew?
Many thanks.
Lionel
I think this is a decision you have to make as it may be better to try and narrow down the number of selections.
Qualifier Mia’s Anthem Won 3.40 at Sedgefield. Backed it, but covered bet with 2 others because the selction was up 12lbs from a recent lower class run of just 4 runners.
I must be missing something as yesterday I do not see how in the red was the pick as good wood zodiac was also a qualifier and was higher master rated
Mia’s anthem was not in the top Halh of master rating. I did back it though as it was highest LTO and m & a by miles.
Can someone just clear this up for me as obviously it is bringing in high priced winners
I think you are talking about the system Norman has posted and not the Lto one?
If so can Norman answer this please. Thanks
Hi. Im a south african punter . How do we calculate the master rating etc. U guys in the UK have so much more info on racing at your disposal. Want oi implement the sytem iin South African racing bets.tnx
Mags, the Master rating is part of the Inform Racing race cards ratings and to get this you will need to subscribe. http://www.informracing-payments.com/
Have just realised I was confusing Mia’s anthem with Normans system as opposed to Russell’s!
I see how in the red fits
Sorry senior moment!!!
Worked it out just in time to back Ghinia
Thanks Russell
Hope you are all enjoying the system and a few winners today and places. Don’t rush as you will increase your bank like me so good luck all
Hi Russell,
First thanks for your thoughts & system, I wondered if you felt it seems a bit harder on the all weather as although one refused to race (mandria) it was harder to find the winners, thanks again,
Roger
Another easy winner at sedgefield David john
Many thanks Russell…had a good day using your system…seems that it is going to be consistent..all the best and thanks again
have often thougt if we had a option to download to a excel ssheet it would be easier and quicker to work a lot of things out
Hi Phil, you can download each meeting into excel using the excel icon next to the meeting name in the members area. Is this what you mean?
There are some occasions when you don’t bet and that is when the first horse in the Lto column is LESS than 1.5 in both the normal place market and the extra place market.
Normally this will be when a horse is say 6/4 in a seven runner field or something and here you don’t then go to the second best Lto, you just move on to the next race.
If the extra place market is below 1.5, then you try the normal place market and if still below 1.5 move on to the second best Lto rating and so on.
i don’t get this at all , doesn’t it contradict itself here ?
Yes Steve it may do slightly. If I have it right the last bit shouldn’t say ‘move on to the second best rating and so on, it should say, ignore the race. In fact I think I shouldn’t have put the last line in, does that correct it?
hi ian yes mate thanks , think i have got it now i hope , will have a go today .
a good filter i think will be to have run last in no more than 30 days + to have either won or been placed on the same going as the lto one as one it is racing on todays going , what do you think ? , i may i think make a excel spreadsheet of all the qualifiers starting today with columns for different filters , then it would in time build up into a picture of what does best , again do you think this is a good idea ?
i have a look at this i think i av got it right for tue
can some one tell me where you get your stats from
Which stats do you mean Alan? If you mean the race cards then you need to be a member of Inform Racing to access these. If you mean something else can you let me know, thanks.
hi norman so I done some races today it I have done right I get thses two 3:40 huntingdon- verano 15/8
5:20 leicester – maraakib 100/30 is this what you get
Hi David
I also backed Maraakib.
Along with Kayfton Pete @ 13/2 ;Dinkum Diamond was an E/W bet winning @ 9/1 ;I swerved the winner Trafalgar Rock, don’t like short-priced horses in Handicaps.
Finally, backed Interconnection @ 7/2 and E/W bet on Arlecchino’s Leap @ 5/1
I also had several losers but the winners were backed at BOG prices so I finished in profit. Don’t back every race but try to find value with my bets
Using Norman’s “rules” as described above, here are today’s selections:
First, an explanation.
All-aged handicaps used with a max of 12 declared runners.
Top rated etc. is self explanatory.
The number after the selection is the total of the ranking in each of the 4 categories of Master, LTO, Ave, M+A. So a horse that is top in all 4 categories will have a figure of 4. In the first race for example, Breaking Bits has a figure of 9 which is made up of – Master 5, LTO 2, Ave 1, M+A 1
The first TRUE indicates that the horse is in the top 50% of runners across all categories (FALSE means it isn’t in the top 50%). The 2nd TRUE means the horse has the TOP Master rating.
How to use this info? Not sure yet. Perhaps only use selections that are TRUE TRUE, which means it’s in the TOP 50% and is also TOP Master rated. Will see what happens today.
Incidentally, Excel has been used to calculate these ratings and only took a few minutes to achieve. Sorry, but too complicated to explain how.
Hope these concur with Norman’s method
Huntingdon 1410
Top Rated
Breaking Bits 9 TRUE FALSE
2nd Rated
Impulsive American 13 TRUE FALSE
3rd Rated
Giveagirlachance 14 TRUE FALSE
Huntingdon 1440
Top Rated
Blackwood Rover 7 TRUE FALSE
2nd Rated
Keychain 8 TRUE FALSE
3rd Rated
Ashcott Boy 13 TRUE FALSE
Musselburgh 1500
Top Rated
Stags Leap 9 TRUE TRUE
2nd Rated
Schmooze 10 FALSE FALSE
3rd Rated
Nelson@s Bay 15 FALSE FALSE
Musselburgh 1600
Top Rated
Trafalgar Rock 5 TRUE TRUE
2nd Rated
Silver Shuffle 9 TRUE FALSE
3rd Rated
Jan Smuts 14 FALSE FALSE
Musselburgh 1630
Top Rated
Flash City 6 TRUE TRUE
2nd Rated
Go Go Green 8 TRUE FALSE
3rd Rated
Imperial Legend 10 TRUE TRUE
Musselburgh 1700
Top Rated
Circuitous 10 TRUE FALSE
2nd Rated
Smalljohn 11 TRUE TRUE
3rd Rated
Charava 12 TRUE FALSE
Musselburgh 1730
Top Rated
Oak Bluffs 4 TRUE TRUE
2nd Rated
Mrs Biggs 14 TRUE FALSE
3rd Rated
American Hustle 15 TRUE FALSE
Leicester 1520
Top Rated
Pastoral Player 6 TRUE FALSE
2nd Rated
Hillbilly Boy 11 TRUE TRUE
3rd Rated
Dinkum Diamond 12 TRUE FALSE
Leicester 1550
Top Rated
Maljaa 5 TRUE FALSE
2nd Rated
Dungannon 9 TRUE TRUE
3rd Rated
Rural Celebration 14 FALSE FALSE
Leicester 1720
Top Rated
Maraakib 6 TRUE FALSE
2nd Rated
Yul Finegold 15 FALSE FALSE
3rd Rated
King Of Paradise 15 FALSE FALSE
Leicester 1750
Top Rated
Interconnection 6 TRUE TRUE
2nd Rated
Sur Empire 9 TRUE FALSE
3rd Rated
Favorite Girl 14 TRUE FALSE
Hi Keith
I agree with your 3 selections for the 2.10 at Huntingdon, but I would have said that using Norman’s method, Giveagirlachance would be the bet as it is ahead of the other 2 in the master ratings?
Forget that, Ive just realised that you are putting forward betting on the horse only of it is top of the master ratings!
interesting stuff chappies im off today o will be playing at racing will use a few on here
FIRST ONE UP TODAY FOR RUSSELL’S SYSTEM GOT BEAT BY A NOSE ! , GUESS WHY CUS’ I BACKED IT !! , I ALWAYS THINK WITH A SYSTEM LIKE THIS BECAUSE I HAVE USED 80/20 BEFORE IS THAT YOU NEED A FEW WINNERS IN THERE REGUARLY TO KEEP YOUR BANK TICKING ALONG .
dinkun diamond nice winner
interconnection marakib boom
kahtan and shine like diamond 80/20 booms
I wonder if this angle could be used in RFC?
Another good day at the office.
bob tucker 4.5 win
take the crown lost
upepito 1.72 place
winlayheyeb 5.5 win
lady of longstone 4.0 win
+28pts for the day
60pts over the last 3 days
Hope this is normal Russell, although i expect there will be bad days
Thanks Russell for sharing with us all
Regards Neil W
Yes neil it is simple and has lots of winners. You will enjoy this and make money so stick with the rules. Glad to help everyone with this system and good luck today. Russell
going for these today Russell plus that’s me staking plan £50
Taste The Wine 1.50 u £2 win £8 place
Alta Rock 3.30 u £2 win £8 place
Rye House 4.05 u £3 win £7 palce
Simply The West 4.40 u £2 win £8 place
Bobby Dove 5.10 u £2 win £8 place
hi dave do you just pick a meeting a day as there all at Uttoxeter
cheers
just trying the system out over the jumps and I just picked this meeting
have thought myself it ould work better over jumps
Russell, could you please clarify if for example you have two horses; horse 1 has highest LTO and is 3rd in the betting. Horse two is 2nd LTO with a lower rating but is no 1 in the betting. Which one do you choose? Do you always go for the highest LTO? cheers
Hi Rich, I think Russell always go for the top lto as long as it is in the first three of the betting, rather than go by the betting first if you see what I mean. If Russell wants to clarify this then he can but this is how I read it from the rules.
horse 1 I would go for
Thanks ian/david
Russell/Ian
Thanks for this looks like the sort of system I like – Simple high churn low drawdown so just knocked up a spread sheet to automate using Gruss BA with Betdaq (don’t use Betfair due to 60% PC) so will try it just using the standard place market (no rule 7).
I may put a filter on no of days.
Hi Russell, is this method of yours still turning out a similar level of profit for you?
Russell, like James, I’m also wondering how your system is doing now? Similar results? Would really appreciate an update.
Just reading through these methods ( Russell and Normans ) . I have a question I hope you will reply to. Will the methods work from the betting forecast, or do I wait till near race time.
Regards,
Edward.
[…] one or two ways that subscribers have been using the ratings and if you read the latest post here, you may have seen a comment added by Norman which was then followed up by Neil suggesting a new […]
I,m guessing that having heard nothing from either Norman of Russell this system has gone with so many systems….in the bin?…..especially as neither have posted on this thread for 6 weeks.
This is response to Norman’s method of generating his selections.
If you have MS Excel, export the days racing by .xls (csv) file. Open Excel…
Remove (*) data by Using the Find and Replace function:
Find what = (*)
Replace with =
Press Replace all
Now go to the first or selected race and select the Master ratings associated.
Select Conditional Formatting —>Top & Bottom Rules- –> More Rules..
Change the 10 to 50 and tick the box to indicate you are looking at the top 50%
Select Format —> Fill. Pick a colour press OK and OK again. The top 50% is now highlighted in the chosen colour.
For the next Lto column; with the Master column highlighted select Format Painter and click on the first cell associated Lto. It will cover all the cells for that race.
For the Avg column; with the Lto column highlighted select Format Painter and click on the first cell associated Avg. It will cover all the cells for that race.
For the M+A column; with the Avg column highlighted select Format Painter and click on the first cell associated Avg. It will cover all the cells for that race.
For the next race Master ratings the previous race M+A column is highlighted select Format Painter. You must select all the Master ratings associated. Then follow the principles for Lto, Avg and M+A outlined above.
This method allows you to assess every race using 50% method within 20mins.
If there are non-Runners after you have assessed a race; simply delete the line the calculation will automatically adjust.
Original is saved as a .xls (CSV file) and the modified with selection assessment as a .xlsx (Excel Workbook).
Finally if you want to change your assessment criteria go back to Conditional Formatting —> Clear Rules
New to these ratings and after reading the posts on this thread thought I would give Russel’s system a shot.
Starting with the 3.05 Nottingham and ending on the 5.15 Brighton I have had bets in 9 races producing 3 winners at (bsp) 5.3, 3.65, 4.55 and 5 others being placed.
Profit on the day of £58.82 to small stakes.
Will trial it further and post on here.
Day 2- A loss of 1penny from 11 races, 5 of the 11 selections unplaced.
Running total + £58.81
Won’t be playing today as other things to do. Back again on Friday.
Day 3 – A profit of £10.13 on a day with small fields and then Betfair decides to crash.
Bets in 5 races 1 winner and 3 more placed before I gave up.
Running total + £68.94
Good stuff Steve, and hopefully another profit today for you. Betfair breaking late afternoon was a nightmare, they should be ashamed of themselves, but clearly aren’t!
Hi Guys,
I’ve been following the LTO system for about 9 weeks now and it seems to have stalled a bit in the last week or two… i’ve been looking to see if any particular days have been better than others, and in 9 weeks I have lost every single Tuesday and 7 out of 8 Sundays.
Has anyone else experience this kind of anomaly…?
Cheers, MAtt