I was asked recently about how to best use the Speed Rating Class Par figures on the website and after explaining what the user should be looking for, I found a couple of nice examples for you at the weekend.
Speed Rating Class Pars.
Speed Rating Class Pars are the average winning rating achieved for each type of race and age group, so any horse that has not achieved the ‘par’ for the race in question can often be ignored.
Not every race will have horses that have achieved the par figure, but this will normally be due to the fact that the runners are all unexposed, lightly raced and/or open to improvement, able to achieve par or near par in future races.
In most cases, all age races and handicaps in particular will have a number of horses that have achieved the par for the race or better and these are the ones I suggest that you look at in the main, honing in on the recent ratings they have put up.
Example 1
Saturday, 2.00 Haydock
This class 3 handicap for older horses has a number of highlighted ratings, especially in the last time out column (Lto), however it is Treasury Notes that you want to be looking at and his last two ratings of 84 and 83.
If you click the ‘Average Class Ratings’ link underneath each card, a box will appear on the screen, as below, showing the speed rating class pars for the race types and age groups.
If you work down the left on this chart to find class 3 handicaps and across to 3YO+ 4YO+ you will see that the par figure, or average winning speed rating, for this type of race is 82.
Looking back at the race card and you will see that Treasury Notes last two runs as I have already said scored ratings of 84 and 83, both of which were higher than the par figure for the race, meaning that the horse has been bang in form recently and was likely to run well again today.
As well as this, the rating of 83 was the best rating in the race last time out, despite the horse only finishing in 5th place.
Result:
Treasury Notes Won 15/2, staying on strongly despite not getting a clear run about two furlongs out
Example 2
Sunday, 3.40 Windsor
Straight away you can see that the Master and Lto rating of 85 for Gravity Flow stand out a mile compared to the rest of the field and it becomes even more apparent when you look at the speed rating class pars table above and see that the average winning rating for a class 4 handicap for older horses is only 80.
The joint favourite for the race, Battlement, only rated 75 last time out despite the form of the joint favourites last races looking very similar indeed.
In fact anyone not using the speed ratings would look at the form and see two very evenly matched horses. After all they had both just run in a class 4 handicap, both races were worth £5,175 to the winner and both horses won.
By hovering over the ratings users can see the details of each run and if you did so for this race you would see these details for both horses last race as below.
Gravity Flow rating of 85 – Class 4 Handicap – Value £5,175 – Position 1st
Battlement rating of 75 – Class 4 Handicap – Value £5,175 – Position 1st
As you can see, there is very little difference in both of these races and the results and it was probably a toss of the coin for most punters between the two favourites for who was going to win.
That is unless you had access to the speed ratings!
Result:
Gravity Flow Won 2/1 by a length and a half and probably would have won by further had she not hung markedly across the course inside the final furlong.
These are just two examples of how to use the speed rating class pars to highlight horses that are bang in form and likely to win and having all of this information to hand that most punters just don’t have, can really be the difference between winning and losing in the long term.
Video
I have made a video of these two examples on the link below which also contains two more winning horses selected on the same days as those above at 4/1 and 9/2.
These two are slightly different examples as they show you how to look for horses that are clearly rated better than the rest of the field despite what the odds say for the race.
In fact the second horse is clear by a long way of the short priced favourite for the race who was beaten into third by our ‘speed rating’ winner.
The video is now on a new page with all of the other tutorial videos for Inform Racing as well the videos I have created for the In Running Trading Tool too.
Click here for all of the Tutorial Videos
Tried this today Kaboom winners were as follows. San Quentin 11/2 bosham12/1 I got 25/1 this morning mapping time 9/2 pine ridge 3/1 so Celebre 2/1 exoplanet blue 4/1 instant karma 13/8 northern thunder 3/1 blue suede 8/13 belle desert 6/1 go on go on go on 13/8 coarse cut 7/4, and a couple of unplaced. NOT BAD made a fair whack with my lucky 15 bets
How did you get bosham and some of others using the method above?It only mentions ltio
I don’t think Neil is talking about the blog post, I think he is just talking about the top rated winners yesterday where there were 12 from the 35 races.
I think there were two bets yesterday going strictly on this blog post idea and they were Go On Go On Go On in the 6.50 Bath who won at 13/8 and Agentleman in the 3.10 Newton Abbot who came 2nd at 7/1.
I used the idea too my advantage most of the bers were clear on master and clear on class.par which was duly notedon some.of the winning margins no set rule on lto if its faster than class.par and got good stats elsewhere im having a crack
Horse I like today is tullius has a.nice clas par above average and down a few pounds from its last win and good jockey stats anotjer examole is showbizy but its a.ladys amatuer race and had shot up.in weights so I would.not bet I.have had a.few today based on yesterdays method will know.more tonight if successful
Lol now a non runner prob because it was gonna be a gamble and now they have seen maasat been steamed intoo best to avoid doh !!!
1st winner of day at worcester what happens now 6/1 good above average par plus good stats especially jockey at course and on horse kaboooom
Nice call!Princess Tiana looks good too.
Excellent stuff Ian.
Can’t wait to subscribe again to your superb figures and ratings.
Afyernoon second itus for me but shows im looking at right things arcane dancer and im super too I left tigerwolf to get on with it silly prices are not for me still more to come in my ew lucky so should recoup
According To Harry was a clear selection with both latest ratings higher than the par for the race of 77 and won at 3/1.
Yep I had that plus borroco waiting on Anastasia and Ellie hart now For a evening multiple
Anastasia and Ellie hart disappointed
Just lumped on victor Ludrum at Stratford spotted it late. Well in and rated above par. KABOOM. off to shops to spend it on beers now 4/1
Only won by 23 lengths Lol oh well
Moss street 330 Worcester was a bet for me just beaten good pars and well in with good stats
I liked look of sailors warn last race at Stratford Using par and trainer at course. Looked a good bet hadn’t noticed earlier just got on before the off. A good 2 length winner at 11/4. ,I live right next to ladbrokes literally !!! Think they are a little miffed so are some of the punters that were on the mug machines ,I said I will pop back tomorrow cheers Ian
Today I like in tense tango page of wands lets twist oscars journey fruit salad highly sprung
2nd itus spoilt my lucky 15
I found quiet a few decent horses on class pars which was disappointing like Ettie Hart…..tullius…..and Moss street …. trying to find the correct winning pattern is a bit harder than I’d imagined lol
The other thing that has to be taken into account is non trying jockey and there seem to be a lot these days
I had a.little tickle on haalan and it paid off 5/1 friday nigjht beer money on mr Ladbroke again
Couldn’t resist Elaal at Newmarket popped downstairs too ladbrokes whacked a score on kaboooooom 2length winner cashiers face was priceless
Put half back on truly scrumptious. Went down by a neck
Looked at Salvatore fury Class par well below its master rating Jockey and trainer stats spot on very well in and down in class from recent wins so 20 on in mr ladbrokes again kaboom think I may get banned sending the missus for next bet lol
A great example of class par today was the 3pm Newcastle the short price fav was well below average The winner well above hence the 1/3 fav getting done by 7 lengths by the horse with above average 5/2 winner
Hi what do u look for when making a decision as everything I back that’s got high ratings Wether on master or lto or even m+a column never looks like winning .
When making a decision there are a lot of factors to take into account,such as: has the horse won at the course,distance and going;has the jockey won with the horse before; is the trainer in form;is the horse coming after a layoff if it is, can he win;is the horse lower or on his last winning mark;is the stepping up in class and if it is how did it run previously;is there a pace bias and if it is will it suit front runners or hold up horse…There are many other factors to take into account but those I find the most important would be the distance,going and if the jockey has won before with the horse. Hope it helps
Saturday was the usual dark horses syndrome I got a few 2nds again so overall cannot complain
Looks like you are doing okay Neil but I would back up what Carla said you have to take into account other factors for me it is important that the horse is not only rated well but that it is handicapped to win. Looking at two of your examples the first Trulee Scrumptious was running off a mark of 63 and whilst she was only beaten a neck just take a look at her previous winning OR they were 57 61 59 55 those extra 2lbs probably made the difference between you collecting on that bet. Salvatore Fury on the other hand was running off a mark of 62 but his last 3 winning OR were 78 72 and 66 much higher so off 62 he was handicapped to win and was also in form as backed up by the ratings. A higher OR isn’t always a bad thing if the horse is an improver but horses tend to find their winning level and a winning OR is a good guide to that level. Good luck with your bets
I am struggling to find any winners with this system over the last 5 days ……. I’m finding most of the top rated horses are favourites at shirt price n not worth backing n if u do back they lose or a bottom rated horse wins ….. I can’t get my hear around it all
I think that is what happens when you try to systemise the ratings. They should be used to back up other factors such as going distance etc as mentioned in previous posts. I generally start by looking at the top 3 master and top 3 Lto ratings or at least those highlighted and work back from there that way once you keep ticking the boxes for the other factors you usually have something worth backing and you know you have well researched things. Also remember to check the Advanced search feature and go back a few years as some of those bottom rated horses may not have recorded much in the last 12 months but that may not be the case beyond 12 months they just may not have been running over their ideal conditions hence the low ratings. The ratings will consistently find winners but you cant take the ratings as a given as a top rated horse may not have his ideal conditions today so is therefore unlikely to win you wont know this until you’ve put in the work to check unfortunately there are no shortcuts. Also you are going to have losers you cannot avoid it I have had runs of 20+ losers but overall I hit a win strike rate around 29% with my bets that’s equivalent to about 7 losers for each 10 bets when I tell people that that they see this as being poor set of results but I know that if I get better than 5/2 for for my 3 winners in 10 I would break even but as I normally get far greater than 5/2 I win long term
I will say now I don’t think I will be renewing my subscription as I’ve not been able to find any winning formula with these ratings …..it maybe for some people but unfortunately not for me. For example I’ve just seen pike corner cross win at Kempton…..it’s not the top rated horse it’s jockey and trainer stats ain’t great ….. course and distance ok compared to top rated horse. What ever stats I look at nothing works
Hi Mark not to sure its about a forumula to be honest just a little delving into the form is the key Pikes was well rated on the master and distance in fact the advanced search showed his form over c/d was 33% 2,2,1, ratings 69,79,79 so consistent I didn’t back it as a bit tight for me but not surprised it won. If it helps I can give an example of one I have backed tonight in the 7.40 Leicester Alnashama he has gone up 5lb for winning but is improving and his last time out rating is significantly higher than the others. A bit of research and I found I could cross through the other well rated horses so in brief Intrude top on master but his best rating was on the all weather. Postbag has shown nothing recently to suggest he is ready to win. Steel Train looks well rated at first but his form on Galloping Testing tracks is 11, 10, 13, and 12th so is passed over Albushamah looks the main danger but loses most of his races at the start if that happens again he will have it to do to peg back Alnashama who likes to be on the pace but if he gets away he would be a concern. Hulcotts recent ratings are low and he is still 6lb above his last winning mark. So whilst Alnashma is up 5lb he is an improver and with valid reasons to discount his main rivals he must have every chance of completing the hatrick tonight The 11/4 EP is my minimum so was happy to take it . After all that it may not win but happy with the form analysis being backed up by the ratings and by doing this regularly you should find enough winners at the odds to make a profit long term. If the ratings are not for you fine they wont be to every ones taste but I find them invaluable at the moment.
Good call on Alnashama Lee. Your efforts have been rewarded.
thanks Ian
Côte d’Azur nice winner for me today well up on class par. Up a few pounds but top master rated and competition wasn’t that threatening 1 1/2 length winner albeit price was pants but market agreed with stats
Had Venetius in 430 ripon good stats down in weight and class as it had winning form in class 4 and was rated higher class par in a class 5 9/1 by a short head so lucky but stats were there
Had a little go with for ayman well clear master with the others albeit foxford good course distance a nice speed rating of 80 down in weight booom 8/1 with foxford 2nd damm shoulda dine reverse as well lol
Kabooomm sole bet of night class par REPUTATION I GOT 9/2 WHEN IT DRIFTED done the laddys again today cheers ian
BOOOOOOOM THE GROOM Off and running for my doubles today 11/1 nice very nice
Very frustrating today after boom the groom Big chill and dreams of glory both placing. Got 3 more tonight. Hopefull but coulda been a big payday so far
New to the ratings so trying like most to find an angle that works but like Lee as said i dont see how its possible to formulate a system using speed ratings, only early days for me but using the par as in the examples on here simply wont work, so many winners today have never achieved the par and beating horses that have easily surpassed the par score. For me the m+a column is very unreliable, thus far today there have only been 4 top m+a top rated winners from 20 races, and 3 of those were massive odds on. I think Lee’s approach is probably the best way forward.
Yes, Lee does make a good point there and shows a good way to analyse a race.Besides looking at the last time out,one thing I like to look at is if a horse is top rated in the master,average and distance and work from there. That would mean the horse could be potential selection as he previously had a good rating,would be in form and would probably like the distance.
Also,I’d like to add that if a horse with few races run clocked a top 3 lto it would be of greatest interest,more so than the others as he could improve of that rating, though it could be more difficult to assess if he would run well on the current conditions as he might have not run on the course or type of track/distance/going before.
That is a good point Carla as most horses don’t run great ratings early on in their career, so if one has only run 2 or 3 times and is in the top 3 or as you say top 3 Lto it will be worth noting.
Horses with low ratings in 2 or 3 year old races can improve significantly and is why I suggest people concentrate on races for older horses, especially when they start using the ratings.
Finally, Lee has the right idea by using the ratings to highlight possible bets and then look into the form. With the pop up boxes, form guides and advanced search features provided, it doesn’t have to take hours to find your selections for the day.
Yes you have to watch those lightly raced types we have an example today in the 4.05 Sandown. Wimpole Hall stands out on the ratings top on master Lto course and distance and is only 2lb higher and drops in class. The horse that beat him last time out over course and distance has won again so the form looks solid and at 11/2 he looks a decent price but John Gosden has Daily Bulletin in this and whist his ratings are in the low 70s and not on a par for this grade of race he did beat Sir Michael Stoutes Across the Sea comfortably in a maiden and that horse went on to win a Group 2 so Daily Bulletin could and should improve on what his has done so far. The bet id be interested in is the betting without Daily Bulletin as Wimpole is around the 10/3 mark with Paddy P. There are showers forecast so for me I will hold fire until nearer the time but if the ground remains fast or at least on the quick side of good I would be keen to have an interest on Wimpole Hall in the without Daily Bulletin market. Good luck today
Thanks Carla, you offer some interesting points and gives a newbie to the ratings something to work on.
Works for me. Secret is too be selective. Pars work well too Made a mint this past week
Few losers during day but late races doubles in with red orotar. Lord Franklin. Salvatore fury Aires midi Excellent team all nicely clear or nice pars backed up by good stats jockey class distance etc etc Nice little pay out
Tomorrow York. Best left alone I think. I’ve tried a lucky 15 with runners at Bangor and Salisbury
I really thought Doctor Parkes at 2.55 would win.Maybe the switch to an apprentice who was 2/23 on the jockey was the bad sign..
Went and took a chance on top rated barsanti at york in the end and it paid off move too the groove beat the odds on at bangor as class par suggested took 5/2:last night , denerigy won as class par suggested at sandown haulani at salisbury nice for class par So another day at the payout window IT PAYS TOO look and look again kabooomm
What made you bet barsanti instead of for example stars over the sea who was top 3 last time out and had good stats?
The jockey and trainer done well this week at York. It had good course speed plus had won there And ability was far superior to star over seas plus look at run style stats !!!!!
When you talk about good course speed are you comparing to the class par?Indeed I forget that I should look at ability on high class races.Run styles stats is not something I pay much attention to though.
Saturdays are evil. !!!!!
Couple of nice class par winners in week but very limited betting for me not getting involved in the lottery which is saturday dark horse day
Highland acclaim at 5s today ticked all the boxes kabooomm
This one is not that difficult to find but I am at a loss as to why this is drifting in price. The 4.00 Bath is a very weak contest but Tamujin is top on The master, Lto, Course and Distance ratings recording a 77 (Todays Race par is 74) when finishing 4th last time out which was over C/D in the same class and on Firm ground however, he is 1lb lower today. Only Elle Rebelle has equalled this rating when recording 77 at Brighton but that was over 1m and from a 2lb lower mark. Eugenic has been supported in the market but his ratings don’t back him up and there is nothing to suggest he will so unless he has been showing something else at home he is discounted. Miss Dusky Diva is lightly raced so could improve on this 71 best rating but has been off for 333 days so may just need it. Captain Oats has won on Firm and is okay at the trip so should go okay but a bit to find rating wise and Candelita whilst winning on firm probably has the wrong trip. I feel the ground is against Deftera Lad although the step up in trip could suit and he could improve but on this fast ground he is discounted. Cranwell can be discounted due to low ratings over this trip and ground as can Jackpot. This leaves the top rated with everything in his favour and a repeat of the last run would easily be good enough to win this. Despite the drift I have gone in at the 11/2
A little disappointing to be beaten a nk by a winner with little ratings to support it but as I said he had been well backed so connections clearly anticipated a better run today as it proved
Unlucky Lee, I thought that was going to stay on the rail and win but I have to question the attitude of the horse as that is now no win from 22 starts and could be the only reason he couldn’t put it all in at the business end. Keep doing what you are doing as you know you cannot win every bet and if you keep picking horses similar to this you will certainly be collecting more often than not.
Guys,
Would i be right in saying that a horse with a high speed rating of say 75 over a distance would better suit a course class par of say around 75 as apposed to high speed rating of a horse at 85 over the same distance..
Correct me if i am wrong. But, i believe the ratings had 5/6 at Leicester today. I use a very strange system based on I Ching and a book i wrote some years ago. There was only one i wanted at the meeting today – ‘The Romford Pele.’ It won at 15/8 odds. Good call ‘Inform.’
Antony Mead.