In a recent blog post I talked about speed ratings class pars and how they can help narrow down the field in a number of races.
A class par is the par rating, or average rating, that should be the minimum rating required to win any particular race type/age group and race class.
If a horse hasn’t achieved the par rating recently, or certainly within the last twelve months, then it can confidently be taken out of the equation as very few of these horses will go on to win.
On the recent blog post here, I went through the Plumpton card for the day highlighting a number of winners that could have been found by comparing the recent ratings to the class pars for each race.
Earlier this week I put up seven runners for the day on Twitter that all had an Average speed rating that was higher than the par and came out with three winners at 9/4, 11/2 and 6/5, plus two that came second.
Class Pars and the Master Rating
When checking through the days results I also spotted a nice winner at Kempton that had a very high Master rating, (the best rating achieved by the horse in the last twelve months), that was actually higher than the highest ever speed rating for that particular race.
On the Inform racing cards you will see the class par for the race and then the highest ever rating achieved for the race and remember these are specifically for each different race type/age group and race class.
For example, you may see, Class Par: Par 77 H 84. This means the average winning speed rating has been 77 and the highest ever achieved in the past was 84.
The race at Kempton had the par for the race as 74 and the highest ever as 81, with one horse, Ubla, having a Master rating of 82.
This doesn’t mean that the horse will record a rating of 82 today, but it does mean that in the last twelve months it has achieved a rating that is higher than ever recorded before for this race type/age group and race class class and if it can run to that form again today then it will have a very good chance of winning.
If you look at the card below, you can see the class pars in the header at the top and the Master rating for Ubla, which is also considerably higher than any other horse in the race.
Ubla went on to win by nearly two lengths at 11/1 with a BSP of 17.
As it happens in this race, Ubla actually achieved a speed rating of 81, matching that of the highest ever for the par for the race, coming right back to form with this comfortable victory.
You can also see that Ubla had been dropped two pounds (-2), since the last run and had won twice before at the distance and four times before at the distance. So any other positive factors that can suggest the horse may be able to run well should all boost your confidence.
Four more winners yesterday
There were seven more runners yesterday that had a Master rating that was higher than the highest ever achieved for the race in question and four of them went on to win.
Admittedly, one of them won at 1/12 (!!) but the other three were all odds against, with two in particular starting at good prices.
3.35 MusselburghClass Par 84 Highest 91
Ardera Cross – Master rating 92, Won 8/1 BSP 10
Forecast as the 20/1 rank outsider, Ardera Cross started the joint outsider of five at 8/1 but stayed on well to win by nearly four lengths.
Like Ubla, he had also been dropped two pounds since the last run and had three previous victories over the distance.
8.00 SouthwellClass Par 75 Highest 83
Accessor – Master rating 85, Won 7/1 BSP 9.83
From the seven selections yesterday, four of the horses had been dropped in the weights and three of them won at 8/1, 6/5 and 1/12 and was the case for Ubla who won earlier in the week.
If you can find any good reason why one of these horses may be able to run to the form of the Master rating again today then there will be some solid betting opportunities over the coming months.
By having these class pars, you know what sort of rating figure will win any particular race type/age group and race class and is a very simple way of looking at a race without necessarily needing to trawl through all of the form.
With speed ratings you can just look at a simple number that represents the quality of the horse and by comparing these to the class pars available, make your own informed and profitable decisions.
Subscribing To Inform Racing
Inform Racing is the #1 resource for UK speed ratings and has been successfully online since 2003.
To sign up and access the speed ratings and all class pars too, use the link below.
would be nice to have class pars in system builder?
Excellent observations yet again Ian.
Class Pars are always a good barometer of all selections made.
Really enjoying the extra content that you are supplying.
Your Betting Tissue tool is highlighting real value selections,that can then be checked with Class Pars as a confirmation.
AVERAGE,LTO1,2,3, listing can also be used to gauge whether the selection has been consistently running at the CLASS PAR Level.
Keep up your expanding ideas to find those elusive VFM winners
I have to agree with Burnsey’s comments , the Tissue tool really does help to get those value selections, I use different criteria to Burnsey but use the tool to look for clear top ranking selections which have 5points + clear figures , a good example from yesterday. 4.20 Sedge. ‘Flowery’ Clear ave fig./ Clear Master fig. Confidence boosted by 5points+ took the 6/1 in the morning, horse made all. another selection yesterday won Clear Master fig. won by 10 lengths.
4.45 Wolv Thawry Clear Ave / Clear Master + Tissue 5pts clr wins 4/1
If the Highest rating par is being beaten , does this mean that all future races will be raised so you will end up with no one beating it , so no more selections
Hi Steve, the highest is from the past races and a horse that may have a higher rating than the highest is also from past races. It doesn’t mean that the horse will beat the highest par rating in today’s race, so the highest par rating for a race may never get beaten.
Does that make sense?
I also think it would be good to see if we can integrate class pars into the system builder. Would be good to see whether backing horses with a higher Master rating than the Class High Par is profitable over time or whether backing horses with a higher Average rating than the Class Average Par is likewise profitable over a longer period.