I have mentioned a couple of the systems that we provide to subscribers recently and how they can highlight some very good ‘Hidden’ speed ratings winners that other punters would not be aware of.
System 2 and System 4 are especially potent and it is system 4 I just want to highlight in the main today, after a spate of good winners including Frosty Berry yesterday at Nottingham winning at 50/1 and over 140/1 on Betfair!
The Simple Rules For System 4
“Any top 3 rated horse in the Lto column whose finishing position for it’s last race was 5th or worse. Here you have horses that ran in good races for speed and time but as they finished down the field will often be found at good prices.”
As you can see this is a very simple system that is based on very sound logic.
A horse that has one of the top 3 ratings last time out, shows a horse that ran one of the better races last time out from the horses in today’s race.
Noting any of these that ran 5th or worse means that the race the horse ran in was a fast one as even horses down the field rated highly on the speed figures and is information and knowledge that others not using the speed ratings will have.
Whilst it is possible and often likely a horse finishing fifth or worse may have been beaten under a length or two, many punters and those who price up the races will not rate a horse that finished ‘poorly’ as high as one that finished in the first three.
This will often mean that a system 4 horse can be backed at decent prices.
3.50 Nottingham – Frosty Berry
As you can see on the image below, Frosty Berry was one of the top 3 rated last time out on 81.
By hovering over the ratings on the card, you can see the boxes that appear showing all details of the race and rating in question.
Doing this for the 81 rating for Frosty Berry’s last run, you can see below that the horse came 7th at Lingfield on this last run, as well as all other important form details for that race.
Result: Frosty Berry Won 50/1
Other system 4 winners yesterday were, Anjuna Beach Won 8/1, Mirsaale Won 7/1, Baron Bolt Won 11/4, Lexington Abbey Won 11/4 and Seek The Fair Land Won 13/8, so as you can see this is a very potent system that finds regular winners.
Combining System 4 and System 2
Last week, as you can see on the card below that Turnbury had one of the top 3 ratings last time out with a 68.
One the image below you can also see that by hovering over that 68 rating, the horse only finished 8th, qualifying it as a system 4 selection.
You can also see that the horse was not only top rated for the race with 77, he was also carrying top weight being number 1 on the race card (No column.)
This means that he also qualified as a system 2 bet.
The Simple Rules For System 2
“Any horse that is top weight in a handicap and also top rated on the Master rating column. The top weight, or joint top weight, is the horse that is carrying the biggest weight in a handicap race and is rated by the official handicapper as the best horse in the race. Allied with also having the best speed rating gives these horses a great chance. Remember this is for handicap races only.”
Result: Turnbury Won 12/1
Lackaday was another system 2 winner yesterday at 13/2.
By using the ratings to highlight horses to back that others just wouldn’t normally be looking at, you can find horses at some very decent prices.
All confirming what I have said before many times and that is that Speed ratings really can highlight those ‘hidden big priced winners’, time and time again.
gabrial the duke.. does that qualify for system 4 & 2,, 3.35 @southall then
It is a system 4 one but not system 2 as it is not top rated. However it is top weight and second top rated so it’s close to being system 2.
Very Very well done with Kayf Grace in the last race at Liverpool today 14/1 it was but Fav it should have been
Another 50/1 winner for System 4 with MAGGIO…..amazing to get two within a few days of each other.
MAGGIO was 4th top in the lto column with a rating of 82,the top three had ratings of 86,86 and 84,i cant see how it was a system 4 selection,or have i missed something?
It is all of those with the 3 highest ratings in the Lto column so on this occasion 86, 84 and 82.
yes, i understand now, basically you highlight the top three ratings not the top three horses,thanks for that Ian
Yes that is right vernos1. What’s the chance of another 50/1 winner today?!
Are there any stats on method 2 and 4, backing a winner is only good as long as the system is profitable, if you have to back 50 horse to that loose to get one 50/1 that is not a good system, Ian can supply some stats on these systems please?
i think Bertie raises a valid point, i must admit i am a bit of a wuss when it comes to losing streaks and quite often chuck in a system which may otherwise be profitable, conversely of course we all have good and bad runs so when we hit a good run is it sustainable? It would be great if there was an option to filter historical races and mess around with different ideas to see how profitable they would be long term.
Bertie, if there were 48 hours in a day I may just find time to record all of the system bets, unfortunately my time is taken up with admin and producing the ratings.
Everyone has the same access to the ratings as I do so there is no reason why you can’t record all of the system bets if you have the time. I know some people do this but don’t want to share this with others which is fair enough.
If system 4 bets were recorded I suggest it may be best looking at 10/1 or bigger, maybe back them each way or something similar, Cullingworth was a winner at Redcar yesterday at 14/1 and 21/1 on Betfair, also Bako De Saulaie was 3rd at 40/1 at Kelso.
Other systems keep producing too like Bazooka won yesterday at 16/1 a system 3 winner, Imshivalla a system 2 winner at 4/1.
The systems are really there to give users ideas as to how to use the ratings as they are all based on ratings and form rules, not something that will definitely give a profit over time.
My record for system 3 from Jan 23,2016 to April 12, 2016 are 103 points profits
In-between, I was not available to online for two weeks.
Thanks for that Stewart.
I think sometimes people need to think for themselves. maybe instead of just blind backing every selection you could apportion a probability to any “system” runners and decide for yourself if you are getting a value price.
Last year I paid (around £400) someone far more technical than me, to scrape some data from Ian’s previous racecard section on the site with the intention of doing some further research on the various columns.
I’m not saying everyone has to do that, I’m saying those that go the extra mile to do their own research will reap the benefits.
Two wins from three selections for me today, Ronnie Baird in the last at Ripon (copped a huge 60p R4 there too) and Daisy Boy in the second at Chelmsford. 8/1 (after R4) and 14/1 respectively for those two wins.
Are you using a minimum price on these James?
I am using what I consider to be value prices Ian, that may be 5/1 it may be 20/1, all depends on my assessment of it’s chance. Here are today’s;
Ayr 03:10 Timon`s Tara
Ayr 04:45 Girly Girl
Newbury 02:20 London Protocol
Southwell 05:10 Bollin Line
Sorry about the crap formatting. I also don’t back anything that hasn’t run for 60 days. The way I see it, is the method is based on a horse having a fast run, LTO. Fast relative to the competition I mean. So backing a horse with a fast LTO run, doesn’t make any sense unless it’s being turned out again within a reasonable time frame, as it’s entirely possible the horse would have lost any form it was carrying. Just MO.
Congratulations for selecting Vona today at York. Clear Top Rated Master LTO,and Distance. BSP 65!!!!!
Fourth last time out, was close to being a system 4 selection. Hope others noted this one.
Best to use races where all runners have some form and all or most have a LTO Rating? So, exclude Maidens etc?
In the main the winners will be from races with lots of form Keith yes but I also look at Maidens too as you will get some good winners here too. This system is about the last rating so the race type is not that important.
What is the price of system2
Hi,
I have had a lot of success with System 4 , the short time I have been a member. However, if the 1,2,3 LTO last finish was say 5th,9th and 7th do I just pick the worse finish? So for example I would pick the LTO that finished 9th?
Yes it would be the one that came 9th but you could also look at distance beaten and take the worst of these perhaps.