In my recent posts I have been looking at testing different ways of using the ratings to find winning angles and this has been made much easier to do with the recently updated Historical Meetings function, that provides an interactive way of checking past ratings and results.
Last week, I thought I would see how things worked out if I combined the ratings with the starting prices to see if I could see any promising results and settled upon the following rules.
- Handicap races only, both flat and jumps.
- Sort the ratings by the M+A column (Master rating + Average rating).
- Note down all top rated horses in the M+A column that started at 7/2 or less.
- If the top rated horse in the M+A column was a non runner, I ignored the race.
- If joint top rated and both at 7/2 or less, back both.
This was just an idea out of the blue that I decided to test but there are many combinations you can try yourself. Combing the ratings with starting prices is just an example but now all past results card columns can be sorted highest to lowest and the pop up form boxes also now show, unlike the previous static format.
Ignoring the race if the top rated horse was a non runner means that, were the idea to prove profitable and be followed by others, everyone could find the same selections first thing in the morning before racing.
Results from September 1st 2017 to Oct 12th 2017 (42 days).
Bets: 265
Won: 90
Lost: 175
Strike Rate: 34%
Profit to SP: +42.13
ROI: 16%
Overall an excellent set of results and a decent profit to boot, all from just a simple idea I came up with one morning. There would also be an improvement of between 5% and 10% to the profits betting on Betfair.
All of these results can be fully checked by users accessing the Historical Meetings feature on the Meetings page.
Checking back all race results for Handicap races ran in the same period, all runners starting at 7/2 or less still hit a decent 29% winning strike rate but the profit was just 1.17 points. I was actually quite surprised there was even a profit backing these blindly but an ROI of just 0.44% doesn’t come close that of the 16% shown in my results, or of course the overall profit.
Reason of the System
The M+A column is certainly one favoured by many subscribers and does produce a large number of winners at all prices, not just 7/2 or below. By combining these top rated horses with those supposedly fancied due to the price they start off at, I was hoping that some sort of profit could be made, or at least better that could be made by backing favourite horses blindly.
Happily it has proven to be the case and one I would expect to continue due to the high strike rate of the M+A column top rate horses and those starting at 7/2 or less.
Example Card
Below you can see a result from a Handicap Hurdle at Fontwell on October 7th. The cards have been sorted by the M+A column and Dashing Oscar is the top rated at 169.
To the far right you can see that the horse won (Pos) and had an SP of 5/2.
Whilst I am delighted that the result of this test provided an excellent profit, I am also trying to show how you can filter the ratings very easily to come up with different ideas and angles.
After testing a few days of results using this idea, I wished I had started looking for top rated horses at 11/2 or less as it seemed there were a lot of winners at these prices, plus I have no idea on how non handicap races would pan out.
Other filters just on this idea, could be looking at horses that are clear top rated by say 5 or more, number of runners in the race, class of race or more. You could even check the horses past form in detail using the pop up boxes once you have a selection.
I believe that subscriber Mike, who you can read about on the links below, uses the M+A as his starting point and it certainly hasn’t done him any harm. He has clearly found a methodical approach that combines the ratings with other factors and is something anyone can do very easily using the speed ratings and Historical Meetings feature.
A 7k Profit Using The Speed Ratings
Hi Ian, On the above post you do not mention A / W Racing, only Flat and Jumps. Does the Idea work on A / W. Thanks
Hi Colin, I do say both flat and jumps, but all weather as well yes. Plus I only checked handicap races too.
Hi Ian,
Very interesting system, I have looked at the cards for yesterday 13th Sept, but it does not show Pos or SP.
So for today if I wanted to paper trade the system I could not get all the info off the Inform Racing cards I would need to look at Betfair to get the SP of the horse for the last race it ran in.
Hi Matt, I am checking these going by the starting price for the day. On the historical cards (subscribers only), you have the finishing position and sp’s. So I am looking at all those that qualify that started at 7/2 or less. I understand betting at 7/2 or less is not easy as prices fluctuate near the off, but the post in general was to show that horses top M+A that are favoured/fancied (I chose 7/2 or less), do well.
A bit confused here with the rules- you say on Rule 3, sort out the horses that started out at 7/2 or less. Was that just in their LTO run? But if they finished in the frame in their last race and show a clear top rating, should we cover them even if the odds are above 7/2?
If you are looking at live racing, today for example, find the qualifiers then bet them if they are 7/2 or less.
any system that you are following that uses a certain starting price is hard to follow for the majority of people as you would need to be at your computer at the time .
i can see the reasoning behind it , don’t get me wrong because i think around 80% of all races are won by the first 5 in the betting ( may be wrong on this ? )
another thing that i have mentioned before is i don’t like to see a race where all the information is not all there for all runners as in all have a master rating and all have run 3 times to give a true average figure for all .
these are just my own thoughts , thanks for the post ian .
Are you suggesting betting on the top rated in the M+A only or the top 3 ? Also is it all odds or just below 7/2?
The suggestion going by the results is to look at the top rated in the M+A column if it is 7/2 or less. This combines a well fancied horse with a good ratings.
It is only a suggestion, other rules can be added or these can be altered slightly too.